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The Effects of the Bank of Japan's Zero Interest Rate Commitment and Quantitative Monetary Easing on the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach

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Author Info
Nobuyuki Oda (Monetary Affairs Department, Bank of Japan)
Kazuo Ueda (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

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Abstract

This paper provides an empirical investigation of monetary policy in Japan in the zero interest rate environment that has held sway since 1999. In particular, we focus on the effects of the zero interest rate commitment and of quantitative monetary easing on mediumto long-term interest rates in Japan. In the study we apply a version of the macro-finance approach, involving a combination of estimation of a structural macro-model and calibration of time-variant parameters to the yield curve observed in the market. This enables us to decompose interest rates into expectations and risk premium components and simultaneously to extract the market's perception of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ's) willingness to carry on its zero interest rate policy. In the analysis we make clear the counterfactual policy that would have been practiced in the absence of the actual policies followed by the BOJ since 1999. From this analysis, we tentatively conclude that the BOJ's monetary policy since 1999 has functioned mainly through the zero interest rate commitment, which has led to declines in medium- to long-term interest rates. We also find some evidence that, up until the end of 2003, raising the reserve target may have been perceived as a signal indicating the BOJ's accommodative policy stance although the size of the effect is not large. The portfolio rebalancing effect -- either by the BOJ's supplying ample liquidity or by its purchases of long-term government bonds -- has not been found to be significant.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-336.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2005cf336

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  1. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David H. Small & P.A. Tinsley, 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jung, Taehun & Teranishi, Yuki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero-Interest-Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 813-35, October.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May. [Downloadable!]
  6. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Naohiko Baba & Shinichi Nishioka & Nobuyuki Oda & Masaaki Shirakawa & Kazuo Ueda & Hiroshi Ugai, 2005. "Japan's deflation, problems in the financial system and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 188, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 139-235. [Downloadable!]
  10. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
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  1. Takeshi Kobayashi & Mark Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2006. "Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values," Working Paper Series 2006-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Peter J Morgan, 2006. "Comments on: “Japanese monetary policy: 1998-2005 and beyond” by Takatoshi Ito," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 133-136 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  4. Masaru Yoshitomi, 2006. "Comments on: “Japanese monetary policy: 1998-2005 and beyond” by Takatoshi Ito," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 137-139 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the secrets of the temple: the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Felton, Andrew, 2008. "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century," MPRA Paper 11862, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Naohiko Baba & Motoharu Nakashima & Yosuke Shigemi & Kazuo Ueda, 2006. "The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Premiums in the Money Market," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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