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Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models

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  • Michael F. Gallmeyer
  • Burton Hollifield
  • Francisco Palomino
  • Stanley E. Zin

Abstract

We examine the relationship between monetary-policy-induced changes in short interest rates and yields on long-maturity default-free bonds. The volatility of the long end of the term structure and its relationship with monetary policy are puzzling from the perspective of simple structural macroeconomic models. We explore whether richer models of risk premiums, specifically stochastic volatility models combined with Epstein-Zin recursive utility, can account for such patterns. We study the properties of the yield curve when inflation is an exogenous process and compare this to the yield curve when inflation is endogenous and determined through an interest-rate/Taylor rule. When inflation is exogenous, it is difficult to match the shape of the historical average yield curve. Capturing its upward slope is especially difficult as the nominal pricing kernel with exogenous inflation does not exhibit any negative autocorrelation - a necessary condition for an upward sloping yield curve as shown in Backus and Zin (1994). Endogenizing inflation provides a substantially better fit of the historical yield curve as the Taylor rule provides additional flexibility in introducing negative autocorrelation into the nominal pricing kernel. Additionally, endogenous inflation provides for a flatter term structure of yield volatilities which better fits historical bond data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13245.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13245

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Cited by:
  1. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Working Papers 662, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Commentary on "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 271-282.
  3. William Gavin & Benjamin Keen, 2013. "U.S. Monetary Policy: A View from Macro Theory," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 33-49, February.
  4. Josephine M. Smith & John B. Taylor, 2007. "The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 13635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2009. "An Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Recursive Preferences at Play," MPRA Paper 19153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Backus, David & Chernov, Mikhail & Zin, Stanley E., 2011. "Sources of entropy in representative agent models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8488, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Pamela Labadie, 2007. "Commentary on "Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 327-330.
  8. Smith, Josephine M. & Taylor, John B., 2009. "The term structure of policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 907-917, October.
  9. Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  10. Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2007. "The Long-run Risk Model: Dynamics and Cyclicality of Interest Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 58, Institute for Financial Research.
  11. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Fisher, Adlai J. & Kuehn, Lars-Alexander, 2011. "Monetary policy and corporate default," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 480-494.
  12. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Tanaka Hiroatsu, 2012. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interests Rates with Recursive Utility," 2012 Meeting Papers 557, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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