Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates When Short-Term Rates Are Close to Zero

Contents:

Author Info

  • Shigeru Iwata

    (Department of Economics, University of Kansas (E-mail: iwata@ku.edu))

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates can affect the effectiveness of monetary policy potentially in two ways. First, it limits the size of a change in the policy interest rate when trying to loosen money. For example, when the nominal rate is 0.5 percent, it obviously cannot be cut by more than 0.5 percent. Second, it may alter the mechanism of how a movement of the policy rate drives market rates of longer maturities. This paper is an attempt to investigate the latter issue, and, in particular, to empirically examine the effect of monetary policy on the term structure of interest rates when nominal short-term rates are close to zero, using Japanese data in the 1990s and early 2000s. We found that when the policy short rate is already zero but longer rates are still positive in the zero interest rate period, an expansionary monetary policy still works through the conventional interest rate channel by pushing down longer rates, although the effect is much weakened relative to the normal time. When the longer rates are already lowered to some level, however (for example, the 10-year bond rate went down to the level as low as 1.5 percent during the quantitative easing period of 2001-06), a further expansion of the monetary base by increasing excess reserves of banks appears to have little effect in lowering longer-term rates.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me28-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its journal Monetary and Economic Studies.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
    Issue (Month): (November)
    Pages: 59-78

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:28:y:2010:p:59-78

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103
    Phone: +81-3-3279-111
    Fax: +81-3-3510-1265
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Zero interest rates; Yield curve; Liquidity trap;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Willem H Buiter & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Liquidity traps: how to avoid them and how to escape them," Bank of England working papers 111, Bank of England.
    2. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Working Paper Series 2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 131-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jun Nagayasu, 2003. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period," IMF Working Papers 03/208, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    6. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    7. Clouse James & Henderson Dale & Orphanides Athanasios & Small David H. & Tinsley P.A., 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-65, September.
    8. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "What do you expect? Imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 421-447, March.
    9. repec:nbr:nberwo:8225 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    11. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2002. "Policy Duration Effect under the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999-2000: Evidence from Japan's Money Market Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-31, January.
    12. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2003. "How to Fight Deflation in a Liquidity Trap," IMF Working Papers 03/64, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:28:y:2010:p:59-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.