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Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument

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Author Info

  • Bruce McGough
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • John C. Williams

Abstract

Using a short-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument can be problematic near its zero bound constraint. An alternative strategy is to use a long-term interest rate as the policy instrument. We find when Taylor-type policy rules are used to set the long rate in a standard New Keynesian model, indeterminacy--that is, multiple rational expectations equilibria--may often result. However, a policy rule with a long rate policy instrument that responds in a "forward-looking" fashion to inflation expectations can avoid the problem of indeterminacy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2004-22.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 52, no. 5 (July 2005) pp. 855-879
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-22

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Interest rates;

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References

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  1. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
  2. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  3. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  5. Clouse James & Henderson Dale & Orphanides Athanasios & Small David H. & Tinsley P.A., 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-65, September.
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  7. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2007. "Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 07-30, Bank of Canada.
  2. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Horta Correia & Pedro Teles, 2010. "Short and Long Interest Rate Targets," Working Papers w201015, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
  5. Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2011. "Equilibrium selection in a cashless economy with transaction frictions in the bond market," MPRA Paper 31680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish, 2011. "Long-term Interest Rates, Risk Premia and Unconventional Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 2011. "Should Central Banks Raise their Inflation Targets? Some Relevant Issues," NBER Working Papers 17005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, 02.
  11. Woodford, Michael, 2005. "Comment on: "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 881-887, July.

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