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The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Geoffrey Shuetrim (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Christopher Thompson (Reserve Bank of Australia)

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Abstract

In this paper we use a simple model of the Australian economy to empirically examine the consequences of parameter uncertainty for optimal monetary policy. Optimal policy responses are derived for a monetary authority that targets inflation and output stability. Parameter uncertainty is characterised by the estimated distribution of the model coefficient estimates. Learning is ruled out, so the monetary authority can commit to its ex ante policy response. We find that taking account of parameter uncertainty can recommend more, rather than less, activist use of the policy instrument. While we acknowledge that this finding is specific to the model specification, parameter estimates and the shocks analysed, the result does stand in contrast to the widely held belief that the generic implication of parameter uncertainty is more conservative policy.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp1999-10.

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Date of creation: Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp1999-10

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Related research
Keywords: optimal monetary policy; parameter uncertainty;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608.
  3. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
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  4. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel Laskar, 2006. "Incertitude sur l'effet global ou sur les délais d'action de la politique économique : politique robuste et activisme," PSE Working Papers 2006-04, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ben Martin, . "Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 105, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
  5. Adam Cagliarini & Guy Debelle, 2000. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Monetary Policy: How Good are the Brakes?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 74, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kirdan Lees, 2004. "Uncertainty and the open economy: a view through two different lenses," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 235, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. Richhild Moessner, 2005. "Optimal discretionary policy and uncertainty about inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 540, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Richard Dennis, 2002. "Exploring the role of the real exchange rate in Australian monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Yuong Ha, 2000. "Uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag: implications for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ulf Söderström, 2000. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 13, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Simon Hall & Chris Salmon & Tony Yates & Nicoletta Batini, . "Uncertainty and Simple Monetary Policy Rules - An illustration for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 96, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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