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The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy

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  • Geoffrey Shuetrim

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Christopher Thompson

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

In this paper we use a simple model of the Australian economy to empirically examine the consequences of parameter uncertainty for optimal monetary policy. Optimal policy responses are derived for a monetary authority that targets inflation and output stability. Parameter uncertainty is characterised by the estimated distribution of the model coefficient estimates. Learning is ruled out, so the monetary authority can commit to its ex ante policy response. We find that taking account of parameter uncertainty can recommend more, rather than less, activist use of the policy instrument. While we acknowledge that this finding is specific to the model specification, parameter estimates and the shocks analysed, the result does stand in contrast to the widely held belief that the generic implication of parameter uncertainty is more conservative policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp1999-10.

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Date of creation: Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp1999-10

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Keywords: optimal monetary policy; parameter uncertainty;

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References

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  1. Philip Lowe, 1997. "Introduction to Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct.
  3. Philip Lowe & Luci Ellis, 1997. "The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2009. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
  3. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
  5. Daniel Laskar, 2006. "Incertitude sur l'effet global ou sur les délais d'action de la politique économique : politique robuste et activisme," Working Papers halshs-00590542, HAL.
  6. Adam Cagliarini & Guy Debelle, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Monetary Policy: How Good are the Brakes?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages 167-196 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 308, Stockholm School of Economics.
  8. Simon Hall & Chris Salmon & Tony Yates & Nicoletta Batini, 1999. "Uncertainty and Simple Monetary Policy Rules - An illustration for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 96, Bank of England.
  9. Adam Cagliarini & Alexandra Heath, 2000. "Monetary Policy-making in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Yuong Ha, 2000. "Uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag: implications for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Guido Cazzavillan & Michael Donadelli, 2010. "Understanding the Global Demand Collapse: Empirical Analysis and Optimal Policy Response," Working Papers 2010_18, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  12. Andrew Stone & Troy Wheatley & Louise Wilkinson, 2005. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy: An Update," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Ben Martin, 1999. "Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 105, Bank of England.

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