This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
David G. Barr
John Y. Campbell

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government nominal and index-linked bonds. The estimation method takes account of imperfections in the indexation of UK index-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds are equal, and that expected real interest rates and inflation follow simple time-series processes whose parameters can be estimated from the cross-section of bond prices. The extracted inflation expectations forecast actual future inflation more accurately than nominal yields do. The estimated real interest rate is highly variable at short horizons, but comparatively stable at long horizons. Changes in real rates and expected inflation are strongly negatively correlated at short horizons, but not at long horizons.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5821.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5821.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Nov 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5821

Note: AP ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1125, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1758, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Sun, Tong-sheng, 1992. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates: A Discrete-Time Model and Its Continuous-Time Limit," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 581-611. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    Other versions:
  11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Money, interest rates, and exchange rates with endogenously segmented markets," Staff Report 278, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Reschreiter, Andreas, 2006. "Indexed Bonds and Revisions of Inflation Expectations," Economics Series 199, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mark M. Spiegel, 1998. "Central bank independence and inflation expectations: evidence from British index-linked gilts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-14. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba, 1999. "The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds in an Individual Accounts Retirement Program," NBER Working Papers 7005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 5587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Marvin Goodfriend, 1998. "Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 13-30. [Downloadable!]
  8. Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Sharon Kozicki & P.A.Tinsley, 2001. "What do you expect? : imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis?," Research Working Paper RWP 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2004. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 5, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. Wilcox, David W, 1998. "Policy Watch: The Introduction of Indexed Government Debt in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 219-27, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Pu Shen & Jonathan Corning, 2001. "Can TIPS help identify long-term inflation expectations?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 61-87. [Downloadable!]
  13. Matthias Kredler, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of a Dynamic Partial-Equilibrium Model for Investment," Econometrics 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc also has a blog.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.