Money market pressure and the determinants of baning crises
AbstractIdentifying banking crises is the first step in the research on determinants of banking crises. The prevailing practice is to employ market events to identify a banking crisis. Researchers justify the usage of this method on the grounds that either direct and reliable indicators of banks’ assets quality are not available, or that withdrawals of bank deposits are no longer a part of financial crises in a modern financial system with deposits insurance. Meanwhile, most researchers also admit that there are inherent inconsistency and arbitrariness associated with the events method. This paper develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market. We begin with the theoretical foundation of this new method and show that it is desirable, and also possible, to depend on a more objective index of money market pressure rather than market events to identify banking crises. This approach allows one to employ high frequency data in regression, and avoid the ambiguity problem in interpreting the direction of causality that most banking literature suffers. Comparing the crises dates with existing research indicates that the new method is able to identify banking crises more accurately than the events method. The two components of the index, changes in central bank funds to bank deposits ratio and changes in short-term real interest rate, are equally important in the identification of banking crises. Bank deposits, combined with central bank funds, provide valuable information on banking distress. With the newly defined crisis episodes, we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries. We estimate conditional logit models that include macroeconomic, financial, and institutional variables in the explanatory variables. The results display similarities to and differences with existing research. We find that slowdown of real GDP, lower real interest rates, extremely high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and over-valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises. The effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 20-2004.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- JÃ¼rgen Von Hagen & Tai-Kuang Ho, 2007. "Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1037-1066, 08.
- Ho, Tai-Kuang & von Hagen, JÃ¼rgen, 2004. "Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
- Gary Gorton, 1986.
"Banking panics and business cycles,"
86-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
- repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
- Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2000.
"Measuring Real Economic Effects of Bailouts: Historical Perspectives on How Countries in Financial Distress Have Fared With and Without Bailouts,"
NBER Working Papers
7701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2000. "Measuring real economic effects of bailouts: historical perspectives on how countries in financial distress have fared with and without bailouts," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-167, December.
- Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999.
"Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?,"
Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?," EPRU Working Paper Series, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics 99-20, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Glick, R. & Hutchison, M., 1999. "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common are Twins?," Papers, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf- pb99-07, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
- Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises: how common are twins?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1999.
"Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability ? An empirical investigation,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2247, The World Bank.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
- Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1751, Econometric Society.
- Asli DemirgÃƒÂ¼ÃƒÂ§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006.
"Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2000. "Inside the crisis : an empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2431, The World Bank.
- Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996.
"The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context,"
Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department
4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," IDB Publications 5819, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1998.
"The Nordic Banking Crisis,"
IMF Occasional Papers
161, International Monetary Fund.
- G. G. Garcia, 1999. "Deposit Insurance," IMF Working Papers 99/54, International Monetary Fund.
- Poonam Gupta & Asli DemirgÃƒÂ¼ÃƒÂ§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Inside the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 00/156, International Monetary Fund.
- Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
- Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January.
- Furfine, Craig, 2002. "The interbank market during a crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 809-820, May.
- Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
- Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, July.
- Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.