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Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?

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M. Ayhan Kose
Kei-Mu Yi

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Abstract

Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures: complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country pairs are small with respect to the rest of the world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country pair’s business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 05-3.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:05-3

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Keywords: Business cycles ; International trade;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto Stein, 2002. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries Any Different?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 195, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. AMBLER, Steve & CARDIA, Emanuela & ZIMMERMANN, Christian, 2000. "International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model," Cahiers de recherche 2000-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Eswar Prasad, 1999. "International Trade and the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 99/56, International Monetary Fund.
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  10. Christian Zimmermann, 1996. "International Real Business Cycles among Heterogeneous Countries," Macroeconomics 9607002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Anderson, H.M. & Kwark, N.-S. & Vahid, F., 1999. "Does International Trade Synchronize Business Cycles?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/99, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2001. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," LICOS Discussion Papers 10601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
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  19. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  20. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mˆmjean, 2008. "Elasticity Optimism," Working Papers 242008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Korhonen, Iikka & Fidrmuc , Jarko, 2009. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Batorova, Ivana, 2008. "China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles," Working Papers RP2008/02, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," NBER Working Papers 14887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2007. "International trade in durable goods: understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elastics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Vertical specialization and international business cycle synchronization," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 21, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ariel Burstein & Christopher Kurz & Linda Tesar, 2008. "Trade, Production Sharing, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 13731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2008. "International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities," NBER Working Papers 13814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jose Joaquin Lopez, 2007. "Production sharing and real business cycles in a small open economy," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 05, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  12. Doireann Fitzgerald, 2007. "Trade Costs, Asset Market Frictions and Risk Sharing: A Joint Test," Working Papers CAS_RN_2007_7, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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