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Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?

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Author Info
M. Ayhan Kose
Kei-Mu Yi

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Abstract

Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures: complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country pairs are small with respect to the rest of the world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country pair’s business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 05-3.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:05-3

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Keywords: Business cycles International trade

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  4. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto Stein, 2002. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries Any Different?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 195, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  7. AMBLER, Steve & CARDIA, Emanuela & ZIMMERMANN, Christian, 2000. "International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model," Cahiers de recherche 2000-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  11. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Anderson, H.M. & Kwark, N.-S. & Vahid, F., 1999. "Does International Trade Synchronize Business Cycles?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/99, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1998. "The international transmission of economic fluctuations:: Effects of U.S. business cycles on the Canadian economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 257-287, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jose Joaquin Lopez, 2007. "Production sharing and real business cycles in a small open economy," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 05, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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