, and then consistently combined to form a global vector autoregression. It is shown that the VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where overidentifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. This gives the system a transparent long-run theoretical structure. Similarly, short-run overidentifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. Alternatively, if one has less confidence in the short-run theory the dynamics can be left unrestricted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where variables can be interpreted as proxies for regional and global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated. The paper also provides some new results on the relative importance of external shocks for the UK and the Euro area economies. Copyright © 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.">

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
M. HASHEM PESARAN
RON SMITH

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 22 (2004), pp. 129-162), where country-specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables, xit, to their foreign counterparts, , and then consistently combined to form a global vector autoregression. It is shown that the VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where overidentifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. This gives the system a transparent long-run theoretical structure. Similarly, short-run overidentifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. Alternatively, if one has less confidence in the short-run theory the dynamics can be left unrestricted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where variables can be interpreted as proxies for regional and global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated. The paper also provides some new results on the relative importance of external shocks for the UK and the Euro area economies. Copyright © 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2006.00516.x
File Format: text/html
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 74 (2006)
Issue (Month): s1 (09)
Pages: 24-49
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:74:y:2006:i:s1:p:24-49

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1463-6786

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1463-6786

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler, 2005. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 11493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Til Schuermann & Bjoern-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Other versions:
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M.H., 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0520, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Gianluca Lagana & Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 77-98, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stéphane Dées & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area - a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 568, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New-Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 491, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87. [Downloadable!]
  3. Assenmacher-Wesche, K. & Pesaran, M.H., 2008. "A VECX* Model of the Swiss Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0809, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2007. "Global Factors, Unemployment Adjustment and the Natural Rate," Kiel Working Papers 1367, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chudik , A. & Pesaran, M.H., 2007. "Infinite Dimensional VARs and Factor Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0757, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can create a compilation of all publications of a group of people, say alumni of a program, your students or memers of an association.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-29.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.