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Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective

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  • M. HASHEM PESARAN
  • RON SMITH

Abstract

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 22 (2004), pp. 129-162), where country-specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables, x it , to their foreign counterparts, , and then consistently combined to form a global vector autoregression. It is shown that the VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where overidentifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. This gives the system a transparent long-run theoretical structure. Similarly, short-run overidentifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. Alternatively, if one has less confidence in the short-run theory the dynamics can be left unrestricted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where variables can be interpreted as proxies for regional and global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated. The paper also provides some new results on the relative importance of external shocks for the UK and the Euro area economies. Copyright � 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 74 (2006)
Issue (Month): s1 (09)
Pages: 24-49

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:74:y:2006:i:s1:p:24-49

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References

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  1. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," Working Papers 536, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  4. Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542.
  5. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler, 2005. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 1548, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2006. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199296859.
  10. Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
  13. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New Keynesian models," Working Paper 2004-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Gianluca Lagana & Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 77-98, 09.
  16. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  17. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  21. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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