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Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors

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  • Alejandro Izquierdo

    ()

  • Randall Romero
  • Ernesto Talvi

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of variance in LAC7 GDP growth, and that external shocks produce significant responses. Likewise, a significant share of recent LAC7 growth performance can be explained by an external factor “tailwind. ” Also evaluated is the impact of deterioration in external financial conditions. Finally, the relevance of these findings for policy evaluation is emphasized. Growth performance, the strength or weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals and the impact of domestic macro and micro policies on growth can only be properly appraised by first filtering out the effects of external factors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4569.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4569

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  1. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," Research Department Publications 4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  5. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Ernesto Talvi, 2005. "Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile," NBER Working Papers 11153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2012. "The Staggering Rise of the South?," Working Papers 2012/3, Turkish Economic Association.
  2. Akito Matsumoto, 2011. "Global Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 11/136, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  4. Ignacio Lozano & Ligia Alba Melo B. & Jorge Enrique Ramos F., 2012. "Flujos de capital y política fiscal en las economías emergentes de América Latina," Borradores de Economia 702, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009. "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005406, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. José Antonio Ocampo, 2011. "How Well Has Latin America Fared During the Global Financial Crisis?," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(61-62), pages 7-33, January -.
  7. Juan Manuel Julio R. & Ignacio Lozano & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2012. "Quiebre estructural de la relación entre la política fiscal y el riesgo soberano en las economías emergentes: el caso colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009316, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Fernando Arias & Daira Garrido & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón, 2012. "¿Responden los diferentes tipos de flujos de capitales a los mismos fundamentos y en el mismo grado? Evidencia reciente para países emergentes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009764, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Ercio Muñoz S. & Mariel C. Siravegna, 2013. "¿Tiene un Impacto el Precio de las Materias Primas Sobre las Bolsas de América Latina?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(3), pages 102-118, December.

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