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Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross Country Evidence

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  • Kai Carstensen
  • Oliver Hülsewig
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

This paper explores the importance of housing and mortgage market heterogeneity in 13 European countries for the transmission of monetary policy. We use a pooled VAR model which is estimated over the period 1995-2006 to generate impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to a monetary policy shock. We split our sample of countries into two disjoint groups according to the impact of the monetary policy shock on real house prices. Our results suggest that in countries with a more pronounced reaction of real house prices the propagation of monetary policy shocks to macroeconomic variables is amplified.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.96134.de/diw_finess_07040.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Working Paper / FINESS with number 7.4.

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Length: 36 p.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwfin:diwfin7.4

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Keywords: Pooled VAR model; house prices; monetary policy transmission; country clusters; sign restrictions;

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References

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  1. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1999. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
  3. Luis J. Álvarez, 2007. "What do micro price data tell us on the validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0728, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2003. "Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 20-34, January.
  5. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
  6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 540, Boston College Department of Economics.
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  8. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
  9. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
  10. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  11. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "Mortgage markets, collateral constraints, and monetary policy: Do institutional factors matter?," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 0888, European Central Bank.
  13. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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Cited by:
  1. Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Housing-market heterogeneity in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-184.
  2. Ansgar Belke, 2009. "Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise: ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 953, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 14/2012, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  4. Maria Christidou & Panagiotis Konstantinou, 2011. "Housing Market and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Evidence from U.S. States," Discussion Paper Series 2011_14, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2011.
  5. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E. Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," CAMA Working Papers 2013-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Peter Tillmann, 2012. "Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: Evidence from Emerging Asia," Working Papers 182012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  7. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 13/38, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Voigtländer, Michael, 2012. "The Stability of the German Housing Market," MPRA Paper 43315, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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