THE IMPACT OF HOUSE PRICES ON CONSUMPTION IN SOUTH AFRICA: EVIDENCE FROM PROVINCIAL-LEVEL PANEL VARs
AbstractThis paper provides an empirical analysis of the role of house prices in determining the dynamic behaviour of consumption in South Africa using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) approach to provincial level panel data covering the period of 1996 to 2010. With the shocks being identified using the standard recursive identification scheme, we find that the response of consumption to house prices shock is positive, but short-lived. In addition, we find that a positive shock to house price growth has a positive and significant effect on consumption, while the negative impact of an anticipated house price decrease causes an insignificant reduction in consumption. This suggests that house prices exhibit an asymmetric effect on consumption, with the positive effect following an increase in house prices being dominant in magnitude in comparison to a decline in consumption resulting from a negative shock to house prices.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201211.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
House prices; consumption; panel vector autoregressions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2012-03-21 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-URE-2012-03-21 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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- Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012.
"Is The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And House Prices Asymmetric In South Africa? Evidence From A Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Model,"
201222, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 14/2012, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
- Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2012.
"Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience,"
1211, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel A. Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working Papers 201228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working papers 2012-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Are there Housing Bubbles in South Africa? Evidence from SPSM-Based Panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function," Working Papers 201377, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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