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House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: Evidence from Structural VAR Models

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This paper investigates the responses of house prices and household credit to monetary policy shocks in Norway, using Bayesian structural VAR models. I find that the effect of a monetary policy shock on house prices is large, while the effect on household credit is muted. This is consistent with a relatively small refinancing rate of the mortgage stock each quarter. Using monetary policy to guard against - financial instability by mitigating property-price movements may prove effective, but trying to mitigate household credit may prove costly in terms of GDP and inflation variation.

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  • Ørjan Robstad, 2014. "House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: Evidence from Structural VAR Models," Working Paper 2014/05, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2014_05
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    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2014/201405/
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    2. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    3. Ragna Alstadheim & Ørjan Robstad & Nikka Husom Vonen, 2017. "Financial imbalances, crisis probability and monetary policy in Norway," Working Paper 2017/21, Norges Bank.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    6. Alan Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2017. "Necessity as the mother of invention: monetary policy after the crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 707-755.
    7. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2018. "Linearly Transforming Variables in the VAR Model, How Does it Change the Impulse Response?," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, January.
    8. Dana Orfaig, 2017. "A Structural VAR Model for Estimating the Link between Monetary Policy and Home Prices in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2017.09, Bank of Israel.
    9. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "How Robust Is the Result That the Cost of "Leaning Against the Wind" Exceeds the Benefit? Response to Adrian and Liang," CEPR Discussion Papers 11744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Gregory H. Bauer & Eleonora Granziera, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Private Debt, and Financial Stability Risks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 337-373, September.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2017. "How robust is the result that the cost of "leaning against the wind" exceeds the benefit?," Working Paper Series 2031, European Central Bank.
    12. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Leaning Against the Wind: Costs and Benefits, Effects on Debt, Leaning in DSGE Models, and a Framework for Comparison of Result," CEPR Discussion Papers 12226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Mr. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2016. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind: Are Costs Larger Also with Less Effective Macroprudential Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2016/003, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Laurynas Narusevicius & Tomas Ramanauskas & Laura Gudauskaitė & Tomas Reichenbachas, 2019. "Lithuanian house price index: modelling and forecasting," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 28, Bank of Lithuania.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House Prices; Credit; Monetary Policy; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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