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Low interest rates and housing booms: the role of capital inflows, monetary policy and financial innovation

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  • Filipa Sá
  • Pascal Towbin
  • Tomasz Wieladek

Abstract

A number of OECD countries experienced an environment of low interest rates and a rapid Increase in real house prices and residential investment during the past decade. Different explanations have been suggested for the housing boom: expansionary monetary policy, capital inflows due to a global savings glut and excessive financial innovation combined with inappropriately lax financial regulation. In this study we examine the effects of these three factors on the housing market. We estimate a panel VAR for a sample of OECD countries and identify monetary policy and capital inflows shocks using sign restrictions. To explore how the effects of these shocks change with the structure of the mortgage market and the degree of securitization, we allow the VAR coefficients to vary with mortgage market characteristics. Our results suggest that both types of shocks have a significant and positive effect on real house prices, real credit to the private sector and residential investment. The response of housing variables to both types of shocks is stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets. The amplification effect of mortgage-backed securitization is particularly strong for capital inflows shocks.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 79.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:79

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Keywords: Money supply ; Capital movements;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carol Bertaut & Laurie Pounder DeMarco & Steven B. Kamin & Ralph W. Tryon, 2011. "ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 17350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 185, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Alejandro Jara & Eduardo Olaberría, 2013. "Are all Capital Inflows Associated with Booms in House Prices? An Empirical Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 696, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Lanau, Sergi, 2011. "Domestic financial regulation and external borrowing," Bank of England working papers 429, Bank of England.
  6. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Temporary and Persistent Fiscal Policy Shocks," IHEID Working Papers 06-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  7. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2012. "Towards an explanation of cross-country asymmetries in monetary transmission," Discussion Papers 07/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  9. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2012. "The panel conditionally homogenous vectorautoregressive model," MPRA Paper 37755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Tomasz Wieladek & Sergi Lanau, 2012. "Financial Regulation and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 12/98, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Nickel, Christiane & Tudyka, Andreas, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus in times of high debt: reconsidering multipliers and twin deficits," Working Paper Series 1513, European Central Bank.
  13. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris , Charles W & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Does macropru leak? Evidence from a UK policy experiment," Bank of England working papers 445, Bank of England.
  14. Carol Bertaut & Laurie Pounder DeMarco & Steve Kamin & Ralph Tryon, 2011. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Peter Tillmann, 2012. "Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: Evidence from Emerging Asia," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  16. Kenneth Kuttner, 2012. "Low Interest Rates and Housing Bubbles: Still No Smoking Gun," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  17. Kenneth Kuttner & Ilhyock Shim, 2012. "Taming the Real Estate Beast: The Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Housing Prices and Credit," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.
  18. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Smells Like Fiscal Policy? Assessing the Potential Effectiveness of the ECB's OMT Program," CESifo Working Paper Series 4628, CESifo Group Munich.
  19. Filipa Sá & Pascal Towbin & Tomasz Wieladek, 2012. "Capital inflows, financial innovation and housing booms," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 71-74 Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Bertaut, Carol & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder & Kamin, Steven & Tryon, Ralph, 2012. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 219-234.

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