Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Vittorio Peretti

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Roula Inglesi-Lotz

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of spillovers from the housing sector onto consumption and the interest rate for South Africa using a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. In this regard, we estimate a three-variable TVP-VAR model comprising of real consumption growth rate, the nominal three-months Treasury bill rate and the growth rate of real house prices. The results suggest that, in general, consumption responded positively to a house price shock over the entire sample, with the effect being stronger post financial liberalization. On the other hand, a positive delayed response of nominal interest rate followed a house price shock, with the effect being weaker post financial liberalization until the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) moved to the official inflation-targeting regime. The effect of house prices on both consumption and interest rate was understandably weak during the financial crisis.

Download Info

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201216.

as in new window
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201216

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PRETORIA, 0002
Phone: (+2712) 420 2413
Fax: (+2712) 362-5207
Web page: http://web.up.ac.za/default.asp?ipkCategoryID=677
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian Inference; Consumption; House Price; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Monetary Policy; Structural Vector Autoregression; Stochastic Volatility; Time-Varying Paremeter;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Orazio Attanasio & Andrew Leicester & Matthew Wakefield, 2011. "Do House Prices Drive Consumption Growth? The Coincident Cycles Of House Prices And Consumption In The Uk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 399-435, 06.
  2. Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-45, April.
  3. Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1994. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Cahiers de recherche 9427, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Christophe André & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate?: Evidence from OECD Countries Using an Agnostic Identification Procedure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 947, OECD Publishing.
  5. Pietro Catte & Nathalie Girouard & Robert Price & Christophe André, 2004. "Housing Markets, Wealth and the Business Cycle," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 394, OECD Publishing.
  6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  7. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
  8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  9. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2012. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6px1d1sc, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  10. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing sector dynamics in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, August.
  11. Laurence Boone & Nathalie Girouard & Isabelle Wanner, 2001. "Financial Market Liberalisation, Wealth and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 308, OECD Publishing.
  12. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2011. "The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 225-274, March.
  13. Jiri Slacalek, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Working Paper Series 1117, European Central Bank.
  14. Aron, Janine & Duca, John V & Muellbauer, John & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2007. "Monetary policy and the U.S. housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Working Papers 0705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
  16. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Peter C.B. PHILIPS & Yangru WU & Jun YU, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers 19-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  18. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
  19. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Working Paper 2009/06, Norges Bank.
  20. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Zone targeting monetary policy preferences and financial market conditions: a flexible nonlinear policy reaction function of the SARB monetary policy," Working Papers 201005, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  21. Chen, Jie, 2006. "Re-evaluating the association between housing wealth and aggregate consumption: New evidence from Sweden," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 321-348, December.
  22. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," Working Paper Series WP06-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  23. Paiella, Monica, 2007. "Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 189-205, March.
  24. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  25. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2003. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  26. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T Kanda, 2010. "Bubbles in South African House Prices and their Impact on Consumption," Working Papers 201017, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  27. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  28. Isabel Vansteenkiste & Paul Hiebert, 2009. "Do house price developments spill over across euro area countries? Evidence from a Global VAR," Working Paper Series 1026, European Central Bank.
  29. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  30. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
  31. Luigi Guiso & Monica Paiella & Ignazio Visco, 2005. "Do capital gains affect consumption? Estimates of wealth effects from Italian householdsÂ’ behavior," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 555, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  32. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
  33. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  34. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2003. "Disaggregate Wealth and Aggregate Consumption: an Investigation of Empirical Relationships for the G7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 197-220, 05.
  35. Jie Chen & Feng Guo & Aiyong Zhu, 2009. "Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 57-74.
  36. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Wealth Effects in Emerging Market Economies," NIPE Working Papers 4/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  37. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Housing wealth, credit conditions and consumption," MPRA Paper 24485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Richard K. Green, 1996. "Follow the Leader: How Changes In Residential and Non-Residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 96-05, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  39. Jie Gan, 2010. "Housing Wealth and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Large Panel of Households," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2229-2267, June.
  40. de Bandt, O. & Barhoumi, K. & Bruneau, C., 2010. "The international transmission of house price shocks," Working papers 274, Banque de France.
  41. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  42. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "Houses as collateral: has the link between house prices and consumption in the U.K. changed?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 163-177.
  43. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 659, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  44. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 891, European Central Bank.
  45. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
  46. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  47. Phang, Sock-Yong, 2004. "House prices and aggregate consumption: do they move together? Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 101-119, June.
  48. Finocchiaro, Daria & Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2007. "Do Central Banks React to House Prices?," Working Paper Series 217, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2009.
  49. Gabriela Lopes de Castro, 2007. "The Wealth Effect on Consumption in the Portuguese Economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  50. Ramón Adalid & Carsten Detken, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
  51. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  52. Edelstein, Robert H. & Lum, Sau Kim, 2004. "House prices, wealth effects, and the Singapore macroeconomy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 342-367, December.
  53. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
  54. Amina Ahec Šonje & Anita Ceh Casni & Maruška Vizek, 2012. "Does housing wealth affect private consumption in European post-transition countries? Evidence from linear and threshold models," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 73-85, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Kanyane Matlou, 2013. "A Time-Varying Approach to Analysing Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices in South Africa," Working Papers 201303, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Alexander Zimper, 2013. "The minimal confidence levels of Basel capital regulation," Working Papers 201305, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201216

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rangan Gupta).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.