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How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach

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  • CHRISTOPHER D. CARROLL
  • MISUZU OTSUKA
  • JIRI SLACALEK

Abstract

This paper presents a simple new method for measuring `wealth effects' on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the stickiness of consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption `habits') to distinguish between immediate and eventual wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final eventual effect around 9 cents, substantially larger than the effect of shocks to financial wealth. We argue that our method is preferable to cointegration-based approaches, because neither theory nor evidence supports faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector. JEL Classification: E21, E32, C22.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 43 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 55-79

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i:1:p:55-79

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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References

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  1. Bostic, Raphael & Gabriel, Stuart & Painter, Gary, 2009. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence from micro data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 79-89, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Juan M. Sanchez, 2012. "Mortgage Defaults," IMF Working Papers 12/26, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2010. "Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  3. Jakob B Madsen & Hui Yao, 2012. "Wealth Effects In Consumption: The Financial Accelerator And Banks’ Willingness To Lend," Monash Economics Working Papers 56-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2011. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Working Papers 152011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. Stolbov, M., 2012. "Financial Accelerator Theory and the Russian Mortgage Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 79-98.
  6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Matus Senaj, 2012. "Human Capital, Consumption, and Housing Wealth in Transition," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2012, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  7. Marta Areosa & Waldyr Areosa, 2012. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy – A sticky-dispersed information model," Working Papers Series 285, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  8. Ryan R. Brady & Derek Stimel & Steven Sumner, 2012. "A Time Series Test of the Direct Wealth Effect," Departmental Working Papers 40, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
  9. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201224, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  10. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs E:47/2012, Bank of Finland.
  11. Chad R. Wilkerson & Megan D. Williams, 2011. "Booms and busts in household wealth: implications for Tenth District states," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II.
  12. John V. Duca & Anil Kumar, 2011. "Financial literacy and mortgage equity withdrawals," Working Papers 1110, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  13. Cinquegrana, Giuseppe, 2011. "The dynamics of the housing market prices and the business cycle: a VAR analysis for the european monetary union," MPRA Paper 39875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Sheng Guo & Umut Unal, 2011. "VAR Estimates of the Housing and Stock Wealth Effects: Cross-country Evidence," Working Papers 1103, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
  15. Arrondel, L. & Savignac, F. & Tracol, K., 2011. "Wealth Effects on Consumption Plans: French Households in the Crisis," Working papers 344, Banque de France.

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