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Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure

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  • Muellbauer, John

Abstract

Many factors have contributed to the development of credit markets, easing access of households to credit. This paper considers the implications of easier credit for the influence of higher house prices on consumer expenditure. It argues that with poorly developed credit markets, the effect is likely to be negative, but becomes positive as access to housing collateral increases and down-payments for first time home buyers fall in relation to values. The implications for differences between countries and changes in consumer behaviour over time are explored. Previous studies are reviewed: the omission of credit liberalization and other controls has often biased estimates of housing ‘wealth’ effects on consumption. New empirical estimates for the UK and US suggest that there was no housing ‘wealth effect’ before credit market liberalization, but that the housing collateral effect is now significant, larger than the stock market wealth effect, and about twice as large in the US as the UK.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6782.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6782

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Keywords: consumer expenditure; credit channel; housing wealth;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Costantini, Mauro & Paradiso, Antonio, 2013. "Re-examining the decline in the US saving rate: The impact of mortgage equity withdrawal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 215-225.
  2. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2006. "Consumption, (Dis)Aggregate Wealth and Asset Returns," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 212, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Sarah Drought & Chris McDonald, 2011. "Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. Xiao, Wei, 2013. "Learning about monetary policy rules when the housing market matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 500-515.
  5. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: lessons for the future," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Piet-Hein Van Eeghen, 2011. "Rethinking equilibrium conditions in macromonetary theory: A conceptually rigorous approach," Working Papers 255, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  8. Gete, Pedro, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," MPRA Paper 20957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Feb 2010.
  9. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1142, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2012. "An early warning system to predict the speculative house price bubbles," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. Fisher, Lance A. & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M., 2010. "The response of Australian consumption to housing wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 284-299, March.
  12. Charles Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2009. "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect," NBER Working Papers 15075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. R. Calcagno & E. Fornero & M. Rossi, 2009. "The Effect of House Prices on Household Consumption in Italy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 284-300, October.
  14. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2011. "House Price, Mortgage Premium, and Business Fluctuations," Working Papers 192011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  15. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2011. "The long run relationship between private consumption and wealth: common and idiosyncratic effects," Discussion Papers 295, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  16. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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