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How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach

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Christopher D. Carroll
Misuzu Otsuka
Jirka Slacalek

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Abstract

This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of ‘wealth effects?on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as ‘habits?in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final longrun effect around 9 cents. Consistent with most recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach has sounder theoretical foundations than the currently popular cointegration-based estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence provides any reason for faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 535.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:535

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  19. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karen E. Dynan & Donald L. Kohn, 2007. "The rise in U.S. household indebtedness: causes and consequences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Willem H. Buiter, 2008. "Housing Wealth Isn't Wealth," NBER Working Papers 14204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Finocchiaro, Daria & Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2007. "Do Central Banks React to House Prices?," Working Paper Series 217, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  4. Morgan Kelly, 2007. "On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices," Working Papers 200701, School Of Economics, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "International Wealth Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267- 334. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between Housing Prices and Household Borrowing in Finland," Discussion Papers 1145, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Li-gang Liu & Laurent Pauwels & Andrew Tsang, 2007. "How Large is the Wealth Effect on Hong Kong¡¦s Consumption? Evidence from a Habit Formation Model of Consumption," Working Papers 0720, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marek Jarocinski & Frank R. Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 339-366. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Emmanuel De Veirman & Ashley Dunstan, 2008. "How do Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Interact? Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Gennaro Zezza, 2007. "The Effects of a Declining Housing Market on the U.S. Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_506, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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