IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/279-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

House Prices and Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Nathalie Girouard
  • Sveinbjörn Blöndal

Abstract

This paper reviews the role of house prices in influencing private consumption and residential investment in OECD countries. Deregulation of the mortgage markets in most OECD countries since the 1970s has made it easier for households to borrow for current consumption on the basis of their housing wealth, and the easing of borrowing constraints has often been accompanied by sizeable withdrawal of housing equity. The analysis presented in the paper and a review of existing empirical work for the major OECD countries suggest that house prices have a significant positive impact on private consumption through wealth effects and/or an easing of liquidity constraints. House prices also influence the profitability of house building, and in many countries there is a close association between profitability of house construction and private residential investment. A corollary of these results is that residential property prices can be useful indicators of demand pressures in the economy ... Ce document examine dans quelle mesure les prix des logements influencent la consommation privée et l’investissement résidentiel dans les pays de l’OCDE. Depuis les années 1970, la déréglementation des marchés hypothécaires dans de nombreux pays de l’OCDE a allégé les contraintes visant les emprunts des ménages pour la consommation courante en fonction de leur situation de patrimoine. L’accès élargi des ménages au crédit a souvent été accompagné de prélèvements massifs sur la valeur immobilière. De l’analyse présentée dans cette étude et de la description des travaux empiriques existant pour les principaux pays de l’OCDE, il ressort une incidence significative et positive des prix des logements sur la consommation privée à travers des effets de richesse et/ou par suite d’un assouplissement des contraintes de liquidité. Les prix immobiliers influencent aussi la rentabilité de la construction de logements et dans plusieurs pays, il existe un lien étroit entre l’indicateur de ...

Suggested Citation

  • Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:279-en
    DOI: 10.1787/061034430132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/061034430132
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/061034430132?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    2. Charles Freedman, 1998. "The Canadian Banking System," Technical Reports 81, Bank of Canada.
    3. Palle S. Andersen & Neale Kennedy, 1994. "Household saving and real house prices: an international perspective," BIS Working Papers 20, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. R. Glenn Hubbard & Anil K. Kashyap & Toni M. Whited, 1993. "Internal Finance and Firm Investment," NBER Working Papers 4392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Church, Keith B & Smith, Peter N & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1994. "Econometric Evaluation of Consumers' Expenditure Equations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 71-85, Summer.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Okumura, Tsunao, 1997. "Housing Investment and Residential Land Supply in Japan: An Asset Market Approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 27-54, March.
    8. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    9. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, March.
    10. Rossi, Nicola & Visco, Ignazio, 1995. "National saving and social security in Italy," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 329-356, December.
    11. Ogawa, Kazuo & Kitasaka, Shin-ichi & Yamaoka, Hiroshi & Iwata, Yasuharu, 1996. "An empirical re-evaluation of wealth effect in Japanese household behavior," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 423-442, December.
    12. Yukio Noguchi & James M. Poterba, 1994. "Housing Markets in the United States and Japan," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number nogu94-2, March.
    13. Mr. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "The Nordic Banking Crises: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization?," IMF Working Papers 1995/061, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    15. Malcolm Edey & Ketil Hviding, 1995. "An Assessment of Financial Reform in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 154, OECD Publishing.
    16. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    17. Muellbauer, John, 1994. "The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41, Summer.
    18. Peter J. Brady & Glenn B. Canner & Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The effects of recent mortgage refinancing," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 7(Jul), pages 441-450.
    19. repec:nsr:niesrd:59 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    21. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2003. "Property of stocks and wealth effects on consumption," NIPE Working Papers 2/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1050, European Central Bank.
    3. John Muellbauer & Pierre St-Amant & David Williams, 2015. "Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?," Staff Working Papers 15-40, Bank of Canada.
    4. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    5. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, July.
    6. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-334.
    7. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
    8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    11. Omar Masood & Priya Darshini Pun Thapa & Olivier Levyne & Frederic Teulon & Rabeb Triki, 2014. "Does Co-integration and Causal Relationship Exist between the Non- stationary Variables for Chinese Bank’s Profitability? An Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2014-249, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    12. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Guy Ta, 1994. "Are Real Estate and Securities Markets Integrated? Some Australian Evidence," Working Paper Series 42, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. De Veirman Emmanuel & Dunstan Ashley, 2011. "Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, July.
    14. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Chu, Kam Hon, 2010. "Bank mergers, branch networks and economic growth: Theory and evidence from Canada, 1889-1926," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 265-283, March.
    16. Magdalena Zachłod-Jelec, 2008. "Koncepcja bogactwa gospodarstw domowych. Szacunki dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 19-50.
    17. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2006. "Housing Supply and Price Adjustment," Working Papers 06_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    18. Jim Malley & Hassan Molana, 2002. "The Life-Cycle-Permanent-Income Model: A Reinterpretation and Supporting Evidence," Working Papers 2002_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    19. John Okunev & Patrick J. Wilson, 1997. "Using Nonlinear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 487-503, September.
    20. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consommation; consumption; house prices; prix des logements; richesse; wealth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:279-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.