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How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro F. Data

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
Joao F. Cocco

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Abstract

Housing is a major component of wealth. Since house prices fluctuate considerably over time, it is important to understand how these fluctuations affect households’ consumption decisions. Rising house prices may stimulate consumption by increasing households’ perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. This paper investigates the response of household consumption to house prices using UK micro data. We estimate the largest effect of house prices on consumption for older homeowners, and the smallest effect, insignificantly different from zero, for younger renters. This finding is consistent with heterogeneity in the wealth effect across these groups. It suggests that as the population ages and becomes more concentrated in the old homeowners group, aggregate consumption may become more responsive to house prices. In addition, we find that regional house prices affect regional consumption growth. Predictable changes in house prices are correlated with predictable changes in consumption, particularly for households that are more likely to be borrowing constrained, but this effect is driven by national rather than regional house prices and is important for renters as well as homeowners, suggesting that UK house prices are correlated with aggregate financial market conditions.

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Paper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 2045.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:2045

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Cited by:
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  1. Andrew Benito & Haroon Mumtaz, . "Consumption excess sensitivity, liquidity constraints and the collateral role of housing," Bank of England working papers 306, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael Donihue & Andriy Avramenko, 2007. "Decomposing Consumer Wealth Effects: Evidence on the Role of Real Estate Assets Following the Wealth Cycle of 1990-2002," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1472-1472. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Orazio Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, . "Consumption, house prices and expectations," Bank of England working papers 271, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eva Sierminska & Yelena Takhtamanova, 2007. "Wealth effects out of financial and housing wealth: cross country and age group comparisons," Working Paper Series 2007-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michael R. Donihue & Andriy Avramenko, 2006. "Decomposing consumer wealth effects: evidence on the role of real estate assets following the wealth cycle of 1990-2002," Working Papers 06-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Karl Case & John Quigley & Robert Shiller, 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1235-1235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Hanno Lustig, 2004. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns? (joint with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 322, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrew Benito, . "Housing equity as a buffer: evidence from UK households," Bank of England working papers 324, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 535, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2005. "The life-cycle effects of house price changes," Working Papers 05-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  14. Arce, Oscar & López-Salido, J David, 2006. "House Prices, Rents and Interest Rates Under Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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