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The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes

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Author Info
Karl E. Case
Robert J. Shiller

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Abstract

Tests of weak-form efficiency of the market for single family homes are performed using data on repeat sales prices of 39,210 individual homes, each for two sales dates. Tests were done for Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco/Oakland for 1970-86. While evidence for seasonality in real housing prices is weak, we do find some evidence of inertia in housing prices. A city-wide real log price index change in a given year tends to be followed by a city-wide real log price index change in the same direction (and between a quarter to a half as large in magnitude) in the subsequent year. However, the inertia cannot account for much of the variation in individual housing real price changes. There is so much noise in individual housing prices relative to city-wide price index changes that the R[squared] in forecasting regressions for annual real price change in individual homes is never more than .04.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2506.

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Date of creation: Jul 1989
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Publication status: published as The American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 1, pp. 125-137, (March 1989).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2506

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24, pages 231-274. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Linneman, Peter, 1986. "An empirical test of the efficiency of the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 140-154, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1986. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gau, George W, 1984. "Weak Form Tests of the Efficiency of Real Estate Investment Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 19(4), pages 301-20, November.
  7. Engle, Robert F. & Lilien, David M. & Watson, Mark, 1985. "A dymimic model of housing price determination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 307-326, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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