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Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns

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  • David Geltner
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    Abstract

    This paper estimates the systematic risk (or "beta") of unsecuritized investment grade commercial real estate, as represented by the FRC and PRISA indices of institutional real estate holdings. Systematic risk defined with respect to national consumption is compared to systematic risk defined with respect to the stock market. Also, the risk estimates are explicitly adjusted to account for "smoothing" in appraisal-based aggregate level returns data. The systematic risk of these real estate indices appears to be virtually zero with respect to the stock market, even after correcting for smoothing, but substantially positive with respect to national consumption. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1540-6229.00504
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 17 (1989)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 463-481

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:17:y:1989:i:4:p:463-481

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    Cited by:
    1. James R. Webb & K.W. Chau & L.H. Li, 1997. "Past and Future Sources of Real Estate Returns in Hong Kong," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 251-272.
    2. Graeme Newell & James R. Webb, 1996. "Assessing Risk for International Real Estate Investments," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(2), pages 103-116.
    3. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
    4. Benefield, Justin D. & Anderson, Randy I. & Zumpano, Leonard V., 2009. "Performance differences in property-type diversified versus specialized real estate investment trusts (REITs)," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 70-79, April.
    5. S. Michael Giliberto, 1992. "The Allocation of Real Estate to Future Mixed-Asset Institutional Portfolios," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 7(4), pages 423-432.
    6. K.W. Chau, 1997. "Political Uncertainty and the Real Estate Risk Premiums in Hong Kong," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 297-316.
    7. Patric H. Hendershott, 1997. "Uses of equilibrium models in real estate research," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, January.
    8. Joseph L. Pagliari, Jr. & James R. Webb & Todd A. Canter & Frederich Lieblich, 1997. "A Fundamental Comparison of International Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 317-348.
    9. Terry V. Grissom & James R. DeLisle, 1999. "The Analysis of Real Estate Cycles, Regime Segmentation and Structural Change Using Multiple Indices (or A Multiple Index Analysis of Real Estate Cycles and Structural Change)," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 97-130.
    10. David M. Geltner & Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1994. "Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 403-420.
    11. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    12. Julian Diaz, III, 1997. "An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimates on Appraisal Judgment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 57-66.

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