A primer on the economics and time series econometrics of wealth effects
AbstractThis paper reviews the statistical approach typically applied by macroeconomists to investigate the empirical links among aggregate data on household consumption, income, and wealth. In particular, we focus on studies determining whether and how much changes in net worth, such as those generated by the stock-market boom in the U.S. over the latter 1990s, are responsible for subsequent swings in the growth rate of consumer spending. We show how simple economic theory is used to motivate an econometric strategy that consists of two stages of analysis. First, regressions are used to identify trend movements shared by consumption, income, and wealth over the long run, then deviations of these series from their commong long- run trends are used to help forecast consumption growth over the short run. Our discussion highlights the various judgments that researchers must make in the course of implementing this empirical approach, and we detail how specific parameter estimates describing the magnitude of the wealth effect on consumption--and even broad conclusions about its existence--are affected by making alternative choices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2001-09.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244.
- Chris Carroll & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989.
"Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
3090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 305-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lattimore, Ralph, 1994. "Australian Consumption and Saving," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 54-70, Summer.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998.
"How important is the stock market effect on consumption?,"
9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
- Attanasio, O., 1998.
Open Access publications from University College London
http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
- Campbell, John Y & Deaton, Angus, 1989.
"Why Is Consumption So Smooth?,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 357-73, July.
- Brooks, Ray & Gibbs, Darren, 1994. "A model of the New Zealand economy Reserve Bank Model XII," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 5-86, January.
- Berg, Lennart & Bergstrom, Reinhold, 1995. " Housing and Financial Wealth, Financial Deregulation and Consumption--The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(3), pages 421-39, September.
- Bradley, John & Whelan, Karl & Wright, Jonathan, 1995. "HERMIN Ireland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 249-274, July.
- James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
- Rae, David, 1996. "NBNZ-DEMONZ: A dynamic equilibrium model of New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 91-165, January.
- Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999.
"Contructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 226-240.
- Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Constructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 663, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Muellbauer, John, 1994. "The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41, Summer.
- Jacobs, Jan & Sterken, Elmer, 1995. "The IBS-CCSO quarterly model of the Netherlands Specification, simulation and analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 111-163, April.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-22, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Christensen, Anders Moller & Knudsen, Dan, 1992. "MONA: A quarterly model of the Danish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 10-74, January.
- Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
- B. Douglas Bernheim & John B. Shoven, 1991. "National Saving and Economic Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern91-2, October.
- Alan S. Blinder & Angus Deaton, 1985. "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 465-521.
- Hendry, David F, 1994. "HUS Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 86-106, Summer.
- F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- P.A. Tinsley, 1993. "Fitting both data and theories: polynomial adjustment costs and error- correction decision rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statistics
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.