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Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices

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  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    ()
    (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

  • Goodness C. Aye

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This study examines the time series behaviour of South African house prices within a fractional integration modelling framework while identifying potential breaks and outliers. We used quarterly data on the six house price indexes, namely affordable, luxury, middle-segment (all sizes, large, medium and small sizes), covering the periods 1966:Q1-2012:Q1 for the different middle-segments, 1966:Q3-2012:Q1 for the luxury segment and 1969:Q4-2012:Q1 for the affordable segment. In general, there is persistence in South African house prices with breaks identified. Our results show that in the cases of affordable and luxury, shocks will be transitory, disappearing in the long run, while for the remaining four series of the middle-segment, shocks will be permanent. Hence, for the middle-segment series strong policy measures must be adopted in the event of negative shocks, in order to recover the original trends.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra in its series Faculty Working Papers with number 20/12.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 07 Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp2012

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Web page: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom

Related research

Keywords: House prices; persistence; breaks; fractional integration; South Africa;

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  1. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, 01.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Nonlinearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 521-544, 08.
  3. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
  4. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?," Working Papers 05_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425.
  6. Rangan Gupta & Faaiqa Hartley, 2011. "The Role of Asset Prices in Forecasting Inflation and Output in South Africa," Working Papers 201115, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Horv th, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr & Zhang, Aonan, 2006. "Monitoring Constancy Of Variance In Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(03), pages 373-402, June.
  8. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008. "Spatial Bayesian Methods of Forecasting House Prices in Six Metropolitan Areas of South Africa," Working Papers 200813, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
  11. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana & James E. Payne, 2011. "An Analysis of Oil Production by OPEC Countries: Persistence, Breaks, and Outliers," Faculty Working Papers 01/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  13. Sonali DAS , Rangan GUPTA & Patrick A. KAYA, 2010. "Convergence Of Metropolitan House Prices In South Africa: A Re-Examination Using Efficient Unit Root Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
  14. Ohanissian, Arek & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2008. "True or Spurious Long Memory? A New Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 161-175, April.
  15. Thomas Mikosch & Cătălin Stărică, 2004. "Nonstationarities in Financial Time Series, the Long-Range Dependence, and the IGARCH Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 378-390, February.
  16. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2006. "Monitoring disruptions in financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 77-124.
  17. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zahra Shah, 2010. "An In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Empirical Investigation of the Nonlinearity in House Prices of South Africa," Working Papers 201008, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  18. Jaume Garcia & Josep Maria Raya, 2011. "Price and Income Elasticities of Demand for Housing Characteristics in the City of Barcelona," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 597-608.
  19. Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-335, December.
  20. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Relationship between House Prices and Inflation in South Africa: An ARDL Approach," Working Papers 201130, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  22. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
  23. Hillebrand, Eric, 2005. "Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 121-138.
  24. Gunther Maier & Shanaka Herath, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency: A Survey of Literature," SRE-Disc sre-disc-2009_07, Institute for the Environment and Regional Development, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  25. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T Kanda, 2010. "Bubbles in South African House Prices and their Impact on Consumption," Working Papers 201017, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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