Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An analysis of oil production by OPEC countries: Persistence, breaks, and outliers

Contents:

Author Info

  • Barros, Carlos Pestana
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.
  • Payne, James E.

Abstract

This study examines the time series behaviour of oil production for OPEC member countries within a fractional integration modelling framework recognizing the potential for structural breaks and outliers. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 1973 to October 2008 for 13 OPEC member countries. The results indicate there is mean reverting persistence in oil production with breaks identified in 10 out of the 13 countries examined. Thus, shocks affecting the structure of OPEC oil production will have persistent effects in the long run for all countries, and in some cases the effects are expected to be permanent.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-51D5RSB-2/2/31604c3e3c694d0b5e4ebef7c6926653
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 442-453

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:442-453

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Related research

Keywords: Oil production OPEC Persistence;

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Karbassi, A.R. & Abduli, M.A. & Mahin Abdollahzadeh, E., 2007. "Sustainability of energy production and use in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5171-5180, October.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Public Policy Discussion Papers, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University 04-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  3. Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 11974, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  4. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2331-2341, September.
  6. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers, University of Liverpool Management School 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  7. James E. Payne, 2010. "Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 53-95, January.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 119, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
  10. Hsu, Yi-Chung & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2008. "Revisited: Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? New evidence from a panel SURADF approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2314-2330, September.
  11. Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Exploration economics in a regulated petroleum province: The case of the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-320, March.
  12. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
  13. Robert K. Kaufmann & Cutler J. Cleveland, 2001. "Oil Production in the Lower 48 States: Economic, Geological, and Institutional Determinants," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 27-49.
  14. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  15. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  16. Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2008. "A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4262-4271, November.
  17. James L. Smith, 2008. "World Oil: Market or Mayhem?," Working Papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research 0815, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  18. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bradford, Andrew & Belanger, Laura H. & Mclaughlin, John P. & Miki, Yosuke, 2008. "Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 333-351, March.
  19. Luis A. Gil-Alanaa, 2005. "Unit and fractional roots in the presence of abrupt changes with an application to the brazilian inflation rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 193-207, January.
  20. Peter M. Robinson & Javier Hualde, 2002. "Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Unknown Integration Orders," Faculty Working Papers, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra 07/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  21. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? Evidence From 182 Countries," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series, Monash University, Department of Economics 06/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  22. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2005. "Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: Evidence from Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 857-872, November.
  23. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing of unit roots and other fractionally integrated hypotheses in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 101-113, January.
  24. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  25. Tsoskounoglou, Miltos & Ayerides, George & Tritopoulou, Efi, 2008. "The end of cheap oil: Current status and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3797-3806, October.
  26. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
  27. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, 01.
  28. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  29. Bhaskara Rao, B. & Rao, Gyaneshwar, 2009. "Structural breaks and energy efficiency in Fiji," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3959-3966, October.
  30. Johansen, SØren, 2008. "A Representation Theory For A Class Of Vector Autoregressive Models For Fractional Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 651-676, June.
  31. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  32. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
  33. Payne, James E., 2010. "A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 723-731, March.
  34. Boone, Jeff P., 2001. "Empirical evidence for the superiority of non-US oil and gas investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-226, March.
  35. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
  36. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
  37. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2004. "Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 985-994, November.
  38. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2007. "Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3526-3540, June.
  39. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
  40. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
  41. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
  42. Lien, Donald & Root, Thomas H., 1999. "Convergence to the long-run equilibrium: the case of natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 95-110, April.
  43. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Cowan, Wendy N. & Chang, Tsangyao & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "The nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 359-368.
  2. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective? Evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series, Monash University, Department of Economics 15-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  3. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 102-115.
  4. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Are fluctuations in production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series, Monash University, Department of Economics 05-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  5. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2004. "Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 985-994, November.
  6. Suleyman Bolat & Murat Belke & Necati Celik, 2013. "Mean Reverting Behavior of Energy Consumption: Evidence from Selected MENA Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 315 - 320.
  7. Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1186, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2013. "U.S. Disaggregated renewable energy consumption: Persistence and long memory behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 425-432.
  9. Russell Smyth, 2012. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series, Monash University, Department of Economics 04-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  10. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Faculty Working Papers, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra 20/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  11. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in Malaysia permanent or temporary? Evidence from LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 319-328.
  12. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series, Monash University, Department of Economics 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:442-453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.