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An analysis of oil production by OPEC countries: Persistence, breaks, and outliers

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  • Barros, Carlos Pestana
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.
  • Payne, James E.

Abstract

This study examines the time series behaviour of oil production for OPEC member countries within a fractional integration modelling framework recognizing the potential for structural breaks and outliers. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 1973 to October 2008 for 13 OPEC member countries. The results indicate there is mean reverting persistence in oil production with breaks identified in 10 out of the 13 countries examined. Thus, shocks affecting the structure of OPEC oil production will have persistent effects in the long run for all countries, and in some cases the effects are expected to be permanent.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 442-453

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:442-453

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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Keywords: Oil production OPEC Persistence;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2013. "U.S. Disaggregated renewable energy consumption: Persistence and long memory behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 425-432.
  2. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in Malaysia permanent or temporary? Evidence from LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 319-328.
  3. Carlos Pestana Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices," CESifo Working Paper Series 3935, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2004. "Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 985-994, November.
  5. Suleyman Bolat & Murat Belke & Necati Celik, 2013. "Mean Reverting Behavior of Energy Consumption: Evidence from Selected MENA Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 315 - 320.
  6. Russell Smyth, 2012. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 04-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  7. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective? Evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 371-379.
  8. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Faculty Working Papers 20/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  9. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 102-115.
  10. Cowan, Wendy N. & Chang, Tsangyao & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "The nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 359-368.
  11. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  12. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Are fluctuations in production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 05-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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