Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices
AbstractThis study examines the long-memory properties of German energy price indices (specifically, import and export prices, as well as producer and consumer prices) for hard coal, lignite, mineral oil and natural gas adopting a fractional integration modelling framework. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2011. The results suggest nonstationary long memory in the series (with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1) when breaks are not allowed for. However, endogenous break tests indicate a single break in all series except for producer prices for lignite for which two breaks are detected. When such breaks are taken into account, and with autocorrelated disturbances, evidence of mean reversion is found in practically all cases.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1186.
Length: 25 p.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Energy prices; Germany; fractional integration; persistence; breaks and outliers;
Other versions of this item:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
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