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Monetary policy and the U.S. housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions

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Author Info
Carlos Vargas-Silva () (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University)

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Abstract

This article examines the impact of monetary policy shocks on the U.S. housing market using an identification procedure similar to the one suggested by Uhlig (Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005). The identification procedure imposes sign restrictions on the response of some variables for a certain period. No restrictions are placed on the response of the housing variable. Overall, the results indicate that housing starts and residential investment respond negatively to contractionary monetary policy shocks. However, the magnitude of the impact is sensitive to the selection of the horizon for which the restrictions hold. Moreover, a comparison of the results with those obtained from a conventional Choleski decomposition, suggests that the impact of monetary policy on the housing market is much less certain under the sign restrictions approach.

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Paper provided by Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business in its series Working Papers with number 0705.

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Handle: RePEc:shs:wpaper:0705

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  1. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, . "Another Consequence of the Economic Crisis: A Decrease in Migrants’ Remittances," Working Papers 0907, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "The Effect Of Monetary Policy On House Price Inflation: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Working Papers 200903, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "The Blessing Of Dimensionality In Forecasting Real House Price Growth In The Nine Census Divisions Of The Us," Working Papers 200902, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Real House Price Growth In South Africa: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Working Papers 200905, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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