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The international transmission of house price shocks

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  • de Bandt, O.
  • Barhoumi, K.
  • Bruneau, C.

Abstract

In order to assess transmission mechanisms between global and domestic house prices, and possibly contagion effects, we use a large database of macroeconomic variables for OECD countries. We extract common factors to summarize the comovements of the variables and include them in stationary FAVAR models. We mainly focus on the "pandemic" view of contagion where local shocks, originating from a country or a local housing market, spread out to other domestic housing markets. An interesting finding is that, even allowing for other channels of international transmission (through global interest rates, or activity), the US real house price, which appears to be exogenous in the US dynamics, unidirectionally causes the international house price factor, which in turn causes the domestic real house price growth for several countries. The channels of contagion from the US appears therefore to be either direct, through house prices (in particular in the UK or Spain), or indirect through other variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 274.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:274

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Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Keywords: housing; factor models; Vector Autoregressive model.;

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References

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  1. Francois Ortalo-Magne & Andrea Prat, 2010. "Spatial Asset Pricing: A First Step," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /2010/546, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  2. Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
  3. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2010. "Winners and Losers in House Markets," Working Papers 2010-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  8. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2005. "Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Working Paper 2005-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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Cited by:
  1. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
  2. Dufrénot, Gilles & Malik, Sheheryar, 2012. "The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1960-1967.
  3. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid, 2012. "Theoretical Channels of International,Transmission During the Subprime Crisis to OCDE Countries : A FAVAR Model Under Bayesian Framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-40, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  4. de Bandt,O. & Malik, S., 2010. "Is there Evidence of Shift-Contagion in International Housing Markets?," Working papers 295, Banque de France.
  5. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Christophe André, 2010. "A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 746, OECD Publishing.
  7. Andreas Merikas & Anna Merika & Nikiforos Laopodis & Anna Triantafyllou, 2012. "House Price Comovements in the Eurozone Economies," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 71-98.
  8. Christophe Andre & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Comovement in Euro Area Housing Prices: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 201359, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Christophe Andre & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate? Evidence from OECD Countries using an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 58(1), pages 19-70.
  10. Katharina Pijnenburg, 2013. "The Spatial Dimension of US House Price Developments," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1270, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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