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International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach

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Author Info
Fabio C. Bagliano ()
Claudio Morana ()

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Abstract

In this paper international comovements among a set of key real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have been investigated for the 1980-2005 period, using a Factor Vector Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in macroeconomic variables do not concern only real activity, but are an important feature also of stock market returns, inflation rates, interest rates and, to a smaller extent, monetary aggregates. Both common sources of shocks and similar transmission mechanisms explain international comovements, with the only exception of Japan, where the idiosyncratic features seem to dominate. Finally, concerning the origin of global shocks, evidence of both global supply-side and demand-side disturbances is found.

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Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers with number 41-2006.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:41-2006

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Related research
Keywords: G7; international business cycle; factor vector autoregressive models; common factors;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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    Other versions:
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  5. Claudio Morana & Fabio Cesare Bagliano, 2007. "Inflation and monetary dynamics in the USA: a quantity-theory approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 229-244, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2007. "Business Cycle Comovement in the G-7: Common Shocks or Common Transmission Mechanisms?," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 40, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "A New Approach to Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation with an Application to Large-Scale Macroeconometric Modelling," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 28, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ansgar Belke & Andreas Rees, 2009. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policy Makers - Rising Challenges for Central Banks," Ruhr Economic Papers 0135, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Factor vector autoregressive estimation: a new approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 15-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ales Cerný & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2008. "On the Computation of Optimal Monotone Mean-Variance Portfolios via Truncated Quadratic Utility," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 79, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  6. Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2008. "Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 73, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claudio Morana, 2008. "International stock markets comovements: the role of economic and financial integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 333-359, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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