This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Eickmeier, Sandra

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper seeks to assess comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area by fitting a nonstationary dynamic factor model (Bai and Ng, 2004), augmented with a structural factor setup (Forni and Reichlin, 1998), to a large set of euro-area macroeconomic variables observed between 1982 and 2003. This framework allows us to estimate stationary and non-stationary common factors and idiosyncratic components, to identify the structural shocks behind the common factors and assess their transmission to individual EMU countries. Our most important findings are the following. EMU countries share five common trends. However, the source of non-stationarity of individual countries? key macroeconomic variables is not only pervasive. Instead, most countries? output and inflation are also affected by long-lasting idiosyncratic shocks. Unweighted dispersion is primarily due to idiosyncratic shocks rather than the asymmetric spread of common shocks. However, the latter seems to be the main driving force of weighted dispersion of output at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s and again from 1999 on and of inflation in the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. To examine the transmission of common shocks to individual EMU countries in more detail, we identify five structural common shocks, namely two euro-area supply shocks, one euro-area demand shock, one common monetary policy shock and a US shock. We find similar output and inflation responses across countries (with some exceptions), and similarity generally increases with the horizon.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19660
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,31.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4793

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt
Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Email:
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (ZBW - German National Library for Economics).

Related research
Keywords: Dynamic factor models; sign restrictions; common trends; common cycles; international business cycles; EMU; output and inflation differentials;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 39-61. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andrew C. Harvey & Vasco M. Carvalho, 2005. "Convergence in the trends and cycles of Euro-zone income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 275-289. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2006. "Has the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy changed in the run-up to EMU?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 737-776, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Matteo Ciccarelli & Fabio Canova, 2006. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 478, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  9. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Pierpaolo Benigno & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 178, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Working Paper Series 595, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 109-134, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael ARTIS & Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2001. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/15, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. P J Perez & D R Osborn & M Artis, 2003. "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 37, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003. "Do national business cycles have an international origin?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 223-247, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  18. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  19. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic factor models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 27-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Luca Sala, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: A Factor Model Approach," Macroeconomics 0205005, EconWPA, revised 15 May 2002. [Downloadable!]
  22. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2004. "Business Cycle Transmission from the US to Germany : a Structural Factor Approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. U. Michael Bergman, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
  24. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/375, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  25. Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  27. Ignazio Angeloni & Benoit Mojon & Anil K. Kashyap & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary transmission in the Euro Area: where do we stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  28. Frank Smets & Gert Peersman, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 052, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  29. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Thomas Dalsgaard & Christophe André & Pete Richardson, 2001. "Standard Shocks in the OECD Interlink Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 306, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  31. repec:rus:hseeco:123092 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicoló, 1999. "On the Sources of Business Cycles in the G-7," Economics Working Papers 459, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  33. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  34. Günter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  35. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  36. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  37. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2002. "Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 3550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Artis, Michael J & Osborn, Denise & Perez-Vazquez, Pedro, 2004. "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks in the G-7," CEPR Discussion Papers 4652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  39. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  41. Roland Straub & Gert Peersman, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," IMF Working Papers 06/135, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  42. Rob Luginbuhl & Siem Jan Koopman, 2003. "Convergence in European GDP Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-031/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  43. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  44. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  45. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  46. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  47. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "A Parametric Estimation Method for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5620, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  48. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Evaluating latent and observed factors in macroeconomics and finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 507-537. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  49. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  50. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Authors registered on the RePEc Author Service receive monthly emails with details about downloads and abstract views of their works.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.