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International shocks and national house prices

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  • Andrea Beltratti

    ()

  • Claudio Morana

    ()

Abstract

The paper investigates linkages between general macroeconomic conditions and the housing market for the G-7 area. Among the key results of the paper, it is found that the US are an important source of global fluctuations not only for real activity, nominal variables and stock prices, but also for housing prices. Yet, also regional factors may be relevant to account for house prices dynamics. Secondly, albeit distinct driving forces for real activity and ?nancial factors can be pointed out, sizeable global interactions can be found. In particular, global supply-side shocks are found to be important determinant of G-7 house prices fluctuations. The linkage between housing prices and macroeconomic developments is however bidirectional, since evidence of signi?cant wealth e¤ects can be found, with investment showing in general a stronger reaction than consumption and output.

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File URL: http://www.icer.it/docs/wp2008/ICERwp14-08.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series with number 14-2008.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:icr:wpmath:14-2008

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Keywords: G7; house prices; international business cycle; factor vector autoregressive models; common factors;

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References

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