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Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states

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  • Marco Del Negro
  • Christopher Otrok

Abstract

The authors use a dynamic factor model estimated via Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s house price movements from state- or region-specific shocks, estimated on quarterly state-level data from 1986 to 2004. The authors find that movements in house prices historically have mainly been driven by the local (state- or region-specific) component. The recent period (2001–04) has been different, however: “Local bubbles” have been important in some states, but overall the increase in house prices is a national phenomenon. The authors then use a VAR to investigate the extent to which expansionary monetary policy is responsible for the common component in house price movements. The authors find the impact of policy shocks on house prices to be very small.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2005-24.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2005-24

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References

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  1. Robert S. Chirinko & Leo de Haan & Elmer Sterken, 2008. "Asset Price Shocks, Real Expenditures, and Financial Structure: A Multi-Country Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2342, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2005. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2002. "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Housing Market," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 541, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 29 Aug 2003.
  9. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 16-29.
  11. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
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  14. repec:wop:humbsf:2001-98 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Otrok, C. & Whiteman, C.H., 1996. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," Working Papers 96-14, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  16. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2002. "The Impact of Zoning on Housing Affordability," NBER Working Papers 8835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Harald Uhlig, 2001. "Did the Fed Surprise the Markets in 2001? A Case Study for VARs with Sign Restrictions," CESifo Working Paper Series 629, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. de Bandt, O. & Barhoumi, K. & Bruneau, C., 2010. "The international transmission of house price shocks," Working papers 274, Banque de France.
  2. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "Regional housing market spillovers in the US: lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting," Working Paper Series 0708, European Central Bank.
  3. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Edward Chilcote & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Are Housing Prices, Household Debt, and Growth Sustainable?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_jan_06, Levy Economics Institute.
  4. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
  5. Robert A. Eisenbeis & W. Scott Frame & Larry D. Wall, 2006. "An analysis of the systemic risks posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and an evaluation of the policy options for reducing those risks," Working Paper 2006-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
  7. Jonathan Heathcote & Morris Davis, 2004. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," 2004 Meeting Papers 32, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
  9. Dong Fu, 2007. "National, regional and metro-specific factors of the U.S. housing market," Working Papers 0707, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  10. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, . "On China’s Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers 11/04, University of Nottingham, GEP.
  11. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2012. "Discussant remarks on Filipa Sá, Pascal Towbin and Tomasz Wieladek’s paper "Capital inflows,financial innovation and housing booms"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 76-82 Bank for International Settlements.

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