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The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time-Varying FAVAR

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  • Eickmeier, Sandra
  • Lemke, Wolfgang
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano

Abstract

We study the changing international transmission of US financial shocks over the period 1971-2009. Financial shocks are defined as unexpected changes of a financial conditions index (FCI), recently developed by Hatzius et al. (2010), for the US. We use a time-varying factor-augmented VAR to model the FCI jointly with a large set of macroeconomic, financial and trade variables for nine major advanced countries. The main findings are as follows. First, positive US financial shocks have a considerable positive impact on growth in the nine countries, and vice versa for negative shocks. Second, the transmission to GDP growth in European countries has increased gradually since the 1980s, consistent with financial globalization. A more marked increase is detected in the early 1980s in the US itself, consistent with changes in the conduct of monetary policy. Third, the size of US financial shocks varies strongly over time, with the `global financial crisis shock' being very large by historical standards and explaining 30 percent of the variation in GDP growth on average over all countries in 2008-2009, compared to a little less than 10 percent over the 1971-2007 period. Finally, large collapses in house prices, exports and TFP are the main drivers of the strong worldwide propagation of US financial shocks during the crisis.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8341.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8341

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Keywords: financial conditions index; financial markets; global financial crisis; globalization; International business cycles; international transmission channels; time-varying FAVAR;

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Cited by:
  1. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
  2. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, . "A new index of financial conditions," Working Papers 2013_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  3. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Harald Badinger, 2012. "Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries," FIW Working Paper series 098, FIW.
  4. Yves S. Schüler, 2014. "Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty over the Business Cycle: A Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-02, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  5. Marcel Förster & Markus Jorra & Peter Tillmann, 2012. "The Dynamics of International Capital Flows: Results from a Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201221, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  6. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How do credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Yamamoto, Shugo, 2014. "Transmission of US financial and trade shocks to Asian economies: Implications for spillover of the 2007–2009 US financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 88-103.
  8. Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Prieto, Esteban, 2013. "Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages," CEPR Discussion Papers 9436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
  10. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjoernland, 2013. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," CAMA Working Papers 2013-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions across Time and Space," CAMA Working Papers 2012-40, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  13. Lena Tonzer, 2013. "Cross-Border Interbank Networks, Banking Risk and Contagion," FIW Working Paper series 129, FIW.

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