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Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities

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Andra C. Ghent
Michael T. Owyang

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Abstract

We analyze the relationship between housing and the business cycle in a set of 36 US cities. Most surprisingly, we find that falls in house prices are often not followed by declines in employment. We also find that the leading indicator property of residential investment is not consistent across cities and that, at the national level, the leading indicator property of residential investment is not robust to including financial factors as control variables.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2009-007.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-007

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Keywords: Housing ; Housing - Prices ; Business cycles;

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  1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2002. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1067-1109, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 37-64. [Downloadable!]
  6. Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Housing And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 751-784, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-84, March. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2004. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 95-123. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Theodore M. Crone, 2005. "An Alternative Definition of Economic Regions in the United States Based on Similarities in State Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 617-626, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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