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Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities

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  • Andra C. Ghent
  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

We analyze the relationship between housing and the business cycle in a set of 51 U.S. cities. Most surprisingly, we find that declines in house prices are often not followed by declines in employment. We also find that national permits are a better leading indicator for a city’s employment than a city’s own permits.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2009-007.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-007

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Keywords: Housing ; Housing - Prices ; Business cycles;

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  25. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  26. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
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