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Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate? Evidence from OECD Countries using an Agnostic Identification Procedure

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  • Christophe Andre
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Patrick T. Kanda

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of significant spillovers from the housing sector onto the wider economy for eight OECD countries in a six-variable structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). A housing demand shock is identified through the recursive Choleski decompostion and, subsequently by using Uhlig’s (2005) agnostic identification procedure. The latter allows a housing demand shock to be identified by imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of consumer prices, residential investment, real house prices and mortgage loans, while private consumption and nominal interest rate responses are left unrestricted. The results suggest that consumption responds positively and significantly to a house price shock in Canada, France, Japan, Spain and, the UK. A significant positive delayed response of nominal interest rates follows a house price shock in Germany, Japan, the UK and, the US, suggesting that while central banks do not seem to respond instantly and systematically to a housing demand shock, its repercussions on the economy tend to translate into higher policy rates after a few quarters.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Duncker & Humblot, Berlin in its journal Applied Economics Quarterly.

Volume (Year): 58 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 19-70

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Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v58_y2012_i1_q1_p19-70

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Keywords: House Price; Monetary Policy; Consumption; Agnostic Identification;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  2. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working papers 2012-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  3. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 14/2012, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  4. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
  5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mauro Costantini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Re-examining the Decline in the US Saving Rate: The Impact of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1232, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201224, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Christophe Andre & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Comovement in Euro Area Housing Prices: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 201359, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  8. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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