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An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Abstract

In this paper, we construct the country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1- 2010:Q2. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental and a filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one that provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, we suggest an early warning system based on three alternative approaches: signalling approach, logit and probit models. It is shown that the latter two models allow much more accurate predictions of the house price bubbles than the signalling approach. The prediction accuracy of the logit and probit models is high enough to make them useful in forecasting the future speculative bubbles in housing market. Thus, our method can be used by the policymakers in their attempts to timely detect the house price bubbles and attenuate their devastating effects on the domestic and world economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1142.

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Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in: Economics : The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 7 (2013) 8
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1142

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Keywords: House prices; early warning system; OECD countries;

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References

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  1. Ralph Setzer & Paul van den Noord & Guntram B. Wolff, 2010. "Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: the role of housing," European Economy - Economic Papers 407, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, 01.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mauro Costantini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Re-examining the Decline in the US Saving Rate: The Impact of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1232, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese & Sven Knoth, 2012. "Eyes Wide Shut? The U.S. House Market Bubble through the Lense of Statistical Process Control," CESifo Working Paper Series 3962, CESifo Group Munich.

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