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What Drives Housing Prices Down?: Evidence from an International Panel

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  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Jan-Oliver Menz
  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

In this study, we suggest an explanation for the alarmingly low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable per capita income, real long-term interest rate, population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real housing prices in Canada and Germany is attributed to the specific values of the fundamentals in these two countries. Canada and Germany are characterized by relatively low average growth rates of real disposable income and relatively high interest rates resulting in suppressed housing prices over long period of time. Institutional structure accentuates these tendencies. Given the importance of housing wealth for the private consumption, our paper aims at drawing attention of the policymakers to the necessity of preventing not only the overheating but also overcooling of the housing market that entails lower economic growth rate.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.78083.de/dp758.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 758.

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Length: 26 p.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 230 (2010) Heft 1, 59-76
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp758

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Keywords: House prices; dynamic panel data; cointegration;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2012. "An early warning system to predict the speculative house price bubbles," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Steiner, Katharina & Hildebrandt, Antje & Huynh-Olesen, Duy T. & Wagner, Karin, 2013. "Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
  3. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense, 2012. "Internet-Based Hedonic Indices of Rents and Prices for Flats: Example of Berlin," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1191, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Stefan Kooths & Matthias Rieger, 2008. "Caught in the US Subprime Meltdown 2007/2008: Germany Loses Its Wallet but Escapes Major Harm," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 825, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2013. "An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(8), pages 1-26.
  6. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense, 2011. "Can Internet Ads Serve as an Indicator of Homeownership Rates?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1168, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2014. "Do the global stochastic trends drive the real house prices in OECD countries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 9-13.
  8. Samya Beidas-Strom & Weicheng Lian & Ashwaq Maseeh, 2009. "The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 09/288, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
  10. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1142, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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