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What Drives Housing Prices Down?: Evidence from an International Panel

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Author Info
Konstantin A. Kholodilin
Jan-Oliver Menz
Boriss Siliverstovs

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Abstract

In this study, we suggest an explanation for the alarmingly low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable per capita income, real long-term interest rate, population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real housing prices in Canada and Germany is attributed to the specific values of the fundamentals in these two countries. Canada and Germany are characterized by relatively low average growth rates of real disposable income and relatively high interest rates resulting in suppressed housing prices over long period of time. Institutional structure accentuates these tendencies. Given the importance of housing wealth for the private consumption, our paper aims at drawing attention of the policymakers to the necessity of preventing not only the overheating but also overcooling of the housing market that entails lower economic growth rate.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 758.

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Length: 26 p.
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp758

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Related research
Keywords: House prices; dynamic panel data; cointegration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kristian Jönsson, 2005. "Cross-sectional Dependency and Size Distortion in a Small-sample Homogeneous Panel Data Unit Root Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 369-392, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Moon, H.R. & Perron, B., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Balázs Egert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Strauss, Jack & Yigit, Taner, 2003. "Shortfalls of panel unit root testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 309-313, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ahlgren, Niklas & Sjöö, Boo & Zhang, Jianhua, 2003. "Panel Cointegration of Chinese A and B Shares," Working Papers 500, Hanken School of Economics.
  8. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 535, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0654, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Crocker Liu, 2006. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 321-352, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
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  16. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312. [Downloadable!]
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  18. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stefan Kooths & Matthias Rieger, 2008. "Caught in the US Subprime Meltdown 2007/2008: Germany Loses Its Wallet but Escapes Major Harm," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 825, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.

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