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Real Estate Markets and Lending: Does Local Growth Fuel Risk?

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  • Maximilian Zurek

    (University of Bayreuth)

Abstract

Real estate price growth affects credit risk for several reasons: it provides input for economic forecasts as it’s closely tied to economic growth; when used as collateral by banks, rising real estate prices may decrease both expected and actual losses; and banks may become less risk averse in lending practices in the presence of rising property prices. Therefore, we analyze these effects on loan portfolios’ estimated and realized risks on a local level. Using data of 390 German savings banks, however, we find that real estate prices have little or no impact on savings banks’ credit portfolio risk or risk precautions.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Zurek, 2022. "Real Estate Markets and Lending: Does Local Growth Fuel Risk?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 27-59, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:62:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10693-021-00358-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-021-00358-9
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lending risk; Regional banks; Collateral; Real estate markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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