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House price, loan-to-value ratio and credit risk

Author

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  • Bian, Xun
  • Lin, Zhenguo
  • Liu, Yingchun

Abstract

Real estate transactions are often established through financing. We study the effect of financing on property prices. We show that properties can transact at prices well above their collateral values. Therefore, the commonly used loan-to-value (LTV) ratio suffers a bias that can significantly understate credit risk. This bias is exacerbated when mortgages are originated with longer terms, at higher LTV ratios, or when sellers possess stronger bargaining power. Furthermore, this bias is larger under aggressive lending products, e.g. interest-only loans and mortgages allowing negative amortization. Our simulation results suggest that many mortgages originated at the peak of the housing bubble are, in fact, “under water” at origination. In particular, the loan amount of a 30-year mortgage at a 95% LTV can be 15% greater than the collateral value of the property, suggesting the mortgage is already deep “under water” at origination. These findings call into questions underwriting and risk control practices in mortgages and other collateralized debts.

Suggested Citation

  • Bian, Xun & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2018. "House price, loan-to-value ratio and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:92:y:2018:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.04.006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael LaCour-Little & Zhenguo Lin & Wei Yu, 2020. "Assumable Financing Redux: A New Challenge for Appraisal?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 3-39, February.
    2. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    3. Stepankova, Barbora & Teply, Petr, 2023. "Consistency of banks' internal probability of default estimates: Empirical evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Maximilian Zurek, 2022. "Real Estate Markets and Lending: Does Local Growth Fuel Risk?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 27-59, October.
    5. Eli Beracha & Julia Freybote & Zhenguo Lin & Michael J. Seiler, 2024. "Time on Market and the Cash Discount for Condos," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 188-217, February.
    6. Su, Chi-Wei & Cai, Xu-Yu & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Can bank credit withstand falling house price in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 257-267.
    7. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2021. "Competing Selling Strategies in the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 394-413, October.
    8. Eugeniya Malinskaya & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2022. "Stimulating Housing Policy and Housing Tenure Choice: Evidence from the G7 Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1997, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019.

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