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Credit Supply and the Price of Housing

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  • Jean Imbs

    (Paris School of Economics)

  • Giovanni Favara

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

We show that since 1994, branching deregulations in the U.S have Âsignificantly affected the supply of mortgage credit, and ultimately house prices. With deregulation, the number and volume of originated mortgage loans increase, while denial rates fall. But the deregulation has no effect on a placebo sample, formed of independent mortgage companies that should not be affected by the regulatory change. This sharpens the causal interpretation of our results. Deregulation boosts the supply of mortgage credit, which has significant end effects on house prices. We find evidence house prices rise with branching deregulation, particularly so in Metropolitan Areas where construction is inelastic for topographic reasons. There is also evidence the fall in house prices after 2006 is most pronounced in least regulated states. We document these results in a large sample of counties across the U.S. We also focus on a reduced cross-section formed by counties on each side of a state border, where a regression discontinuity approach is possible. Our conclusions are strengthened.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 1342.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1342

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  1. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
  2. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  3. Sandra E. Black & Philip E. Strahan, 2002. "Entrepreneurship and Bank Credit Availability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2807-2833, December.
  4. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2005. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," NBER Working Papers 11280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller & Doug Miller, 2009. "Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering," Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics 98, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  6. Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Stiroh, Kevin J & Strahan, Philip E, 2003. " Competitive Dynamics of Deregulation: Evidence from U.S. Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 801-28, October.
  8. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
  9. Jayaratne, Jith & Strahan, Philip E, 1998. "Entry Restrictions, Industry Evolution, and Dynamic Efficiency: Evidence from Commercial Banking," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 239-73, April.
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