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Real estate investments and financial stability: evidence from regional commercial banks in China

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Listed:
  • Dayong Zhang
  • Jing Cai
  • Jia Liu
  • Ali M. Kutan

Abstract

The 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis demonstrated how developments in real estate markets can cause instability in the banking sector and raised concerns in many emerging economies with significant real estate development and a rapidly growing commercial banking sector, particularly in China. There is clear evidence that commercial banks in China, especially regional commercial banks, have lent significantly to the real estate sector. The recent slowdown in the housing market in China and the increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in China's commercial banking sector motivated us to investigate the connection between real estate markets and banking stability. This paper proposes three testable hypotheses linking the growth of investment in real estate and the stability of regional commercial banks in China, measured by NPLs. Our empirical results reveal a close connection between the growth of investment in real estate and the NPLs among regional commercial banks, and its sensitivity to real estate market cycles. When real estate market activity declines, our results suggest, regional commercial banks can find themselves in trouble if they have significant exposure to one type of (real estate) asset. In addition, we find that regional bank competition plays a critical role in defining the relationship between bank stability and real estate investment activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Dayong Zhang & Jing Cai & Jia Liu & Ali M. Kutan, 2018. "Real estate investments and financial stability: evidence from regional commercial banks in China," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(16), pages 1388-1408, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:24:y:2018:i:16:p:1388-1408
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2016.1154083
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Dayong & Li, Jun & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Does better access to credit help reduce energy intensity in China? Evidence from manufacturing firms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Łukasz Mach & Karina Bedrunka & Anna Kuczuk & Marzena Szewczuk-Stępień, 2021. "Effect of Structural Funds on Housing Market Sustainability Development—Correlation, Regression and Wavelet Coherence Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Chen, Jing & Liu, Xinghe & Ou, Fenghao & Lu, Meiting & Wang, Peipei, 2023. "Green lending and stock price crash risk: Evidence from the green credit reform in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2021. "Dynamic linkages among financial stability, house prices and residential investment in Greece," MPRA Paper 107833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Liu, Chao & Zheng, Ying & Zhao, Qi & Wang, Chao, 2020. "Financial stability and real estate price fluctuation in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    6. Weiwei Li & Lisheng Weng & Kaixu Zhao & Sidong Zhao & Ping Zhang, 2021. "Research on the Evaluation of Real Estate Inventory Management in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-29, November.
    7. Yufei Cao, 2021. "Measuring systemic risk and dependence structure between real estates and banking sectors in China using a CoVaR‐copula method," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5930-5947, October.
    8. Martins, António Miguel & Serra, Ana Paula & Stevenson, Simon, 2019. "Determinants of real estate bank profitability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 282-300.
    9. Youngkyung Ok & Jungmu Kim & Yuen Jung Park, 2019. "The Effect of Housing Prices on Bank Performance in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-14, November.
    10. Chiang, Shu-hen & Chen, Chien-Fu, 2022. "From systematic to systemic risk among G7 members: Do the stock or real estate markets matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Maximilian Zurek, 2022. "Real Estate Markets and Lending: Does Local Growth Fuel Risk?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 27-59, October.
    12. Bruce Burton & Satish Kumar & Nitesh Pandey, 2020. "Twenty-five years of The European Journal of Finance (EJF): a retrospective analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(18), pages 1817-1841, December.
    13. Zhang, Zhiwei & Wu, Fei, 2020. "Moral hazard, external governance and risk-taking: Evidence from commercial banks in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    14. Zhiwei Zhang & Dayong Zhang & Fei Wu & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A copula‐based network approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2044-2063, April.
    15. Wang, Lei & Li, Shouwei & Wang, Jining & Meng, Yi, 2020. "Real estate bubbles in a bank-real estate loan network model integrating economic cycle and macro-prudential stress testing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    16. Rob Kim Marjerison & Chungil Chae & Shitong Li, 2021. "Investor Activity in Chinese Financial Institutions: A Precursor to Economic Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, November.
    17. Han, Yang & Zhang, Haotian & Zhao, Yong, 2021. "Structural evolution of real estate industry in China: 2002-2017," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 45-56.

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