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Real estate prices and bank stability

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  • Koetter, Michael
  • Poghosyan, Tigran

Abstract

Real estate prices can deviate from their fundamental value due to rigid supply, heterogeneity in quality, and various market imperfections, which have two contrasting effects on bank stability. Higher prices increase the value of collateral and net wealth of borrowers and thus reduce the likelihood of credit defaults. In contrast, persistent deviations from fundamentals may foster the adverse selection of increasingly risky creditors by banks seeking to expand their loan portfolios, which increases bank distress probabilities. We test these hypotheses using unique data on real estate markets and banks in Germany. House price deviations contribute to bank instability, but nominal house price developments do not. This finding corroborates the importance of deviations from the fundamental value of real estate, rather than just price levels or changes alone, when assessing bank stability.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1129-1138

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1129-1138

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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Keywords: Real estate prices Bank distress;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eli Beracha & Hilla Skiba, 2013. "Findings from a Cross-Sectional Housing Risk-Factor Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 289-309, August.
  2. Niinimäki, J.-P., 2011. "Nominal and true cost of loan collateral," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2782-2790, October.
  3. Goswami, Gautam & Tan, Sinan, 2012. "Pricing the US residential asset through the rent flow: A cross-sectional study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2742-2756.
  4. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 15/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. Kajuth, Florian & Knetsch, Thomas A. & Pinkwart, Nicolas, 2013. "Assessing house prices in Germany: Evidence from an estimated stock-flow model using regional data," Discussion Papers 46/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2013. "House prices, bank instability, and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1720-1732.
  7. Hott, C., 2011. "Lending behavior and real estate prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2429-2442, September.
  8. André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  9. Anundsen, André K. & Jansen, Eilev S., 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 192-212.
  10. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 231-251, January.
  11. Jones, Jeffrey S. & Lee, Wayne Y. & Yeager, Timothy J., 2013. "Valuation and systemic risk consequences of bank opacity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 693-706.
  12. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & van Ewijk, Saskia E., 2011. "Can pure play internet banking survive the credit crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 783-793, April.
  13. Mandell, Svante & Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2013. "Financial infrastructure and house prices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:7, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).

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