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Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking

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  • Kick, Thomas
  • Koetter, Michael

Abstract

Outright bank failures without prior indication of financial instability are very rare. Supervisory authorities monitor banks constantly. Thus, they usually obtain early warning signals that precede ultimate failure and, in fact, banks can be regarded as troubled to varying degrees before outright closure. But to our knowledge virtually all studies that predict bank failures neglect the ordinal nature of bank distress. Exploiting the distress database of the Deutsche Bundesbank we distinguish four different distress events that banks experience. Only the worst entails a bank to exit the market. Weaker orders of distress are, first, compulsory notifications of the authorities about potential problems, second, corrective actions such as warnings and hearings and, third, actions by banking pillar's insurance schemes. Since the four categories of hazard functions are not proportional, we specify a generalized ordered logit model to estimate the respective probabilities of distress simultaneously. Our model estimates each set of probabilities with high accuracy and confirms, first, the necessity to account for different kinds of distress events and, second, the violation of the proportional odds assumption implicit in most limited dependent analyses of bank failure. --

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 132-148

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:3:y:2007:i:2:p:132-148

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Koetter, 2008. "An Assessment of Bank Merger Success in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9, pages 232-264, 05.
  2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. De Graeve, Ferre & Kick, Thomas, 2008. "Monetary policy and bank distress: an integrated micro-macro approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "Real estate markets and bank distress," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
  6. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Cihák, 2009. "Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Based on a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Salvador Marín Hernández & Ester Gras Gil & Marcos Antón Renart, 2011. "Financial information and restructuring of spanish savings banks in a context of crisis. Changes in the regulation; content and evolution of FROB," CIRIEC-España, revista de economía pública, social y cooperativa, CIRIEC-España, issue 73, pages 99-126, October.
  8. Jahn, Nadya & Kick, Thomas, 2012. "Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis," Discussion Papers 27/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Düwel, Cornelia & Frey, Rainer & Lipponer, Alexander, 2011. "Cross-border bank lending, risk aversion and the financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Jiri Podpiera & Inci Ötker, 2010. "The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions," IMF Working Papers 10/153, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Čihak, 2011. "Determinants of Bank Distress in Europe: Evidence from a New Data Set," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 163-184, December.
  12. Blank, Sven & Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2009. "Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: The Banking Granular Residual," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 353-373, December.
  13. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Recovery determinants of distressed banks: Regulators, market discipline, or the environment?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Kick, Thomas & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2011. "The importance of qualitative risk assessment in banking supervision before and during the crisis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  15. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "The implications of latent technology regimes for competition and efficiency in banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  16. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2010. "Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 64-78, June.
  17. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
  18. Blank, Sven & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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