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Commercial property prices and bank performance

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  • E Philip DaviS

    ()

  • Haibin Zhu

    ()

Abstract

We seek to assess the effect of changes in commercial property prices on bank behaviour and performance in a range of industrialised economies, extending the existing micro literature on bank performance. The results suggest that, consistent with macro-level studies, commercial property prices have a marked impact on the behaviour and performance of individual banks. The signs found are consistent with a view that commercial property provides important forms of collateral that are perceived by banks to reduce risk and encourage lending. Such an impact exists even when conventional independent variables determining bank performance are included. Moreover, there is evidence that the magnitude of this impact is related to the size of the bank, the direction of commercial property price movements, and regional factors. The results have implications for risk managers, regulators and monetary policy makers. Notably, they underline the crucial relevance of commercial property prices as a macroprudential variable that warrants close scrutiny by the authorities. They also highlight the need to develop indicators of individual bank exposure to the property market that could help to calibrate the potential impact of changes in prices in stress tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 04-19.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:04-19

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. António Miguel Martins & Ana Paula Serra, 2012. "Real Estate Market Risk in Bank Stock Returns: Evidence for 15 European Countries," CEF.UP Working Papers 1203, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  2. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
  3. Augustyniak, Hanna & Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Waszczuk, Joanna, 2012. "Cykle na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych, ryzyko dla inwestora oraz potrzeba adekwatnej i ostrożnej wyceny
    [Cycles on the housing and commercial real estate market, risks and th
    ," MPRA Paper 41070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Phong T. H. Ngo, 2006. "Endogenous Capital and Profitability in Banking," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-464, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  5. Beckmann, Rainer, 2007. "Profitability of Western European banking systems: panel evidence on structural and cyclical determinants," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Krzysztof Olszewski, 2012. "The impact of commercial real estate on the financial sector, its tracking by central banks and some recommendations for the macro-financial stability policy of central banks," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 132, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  7. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
  8. Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana & Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip, 2013. "Off-balance sheet exposures and banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 673-681.
  9. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
  10. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.

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