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Do Real Estate Prices and Stock Prices Move Together? An International Analysis

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  • Daniel C. Quan
  • Sheridan Titman

Abstract

The relationship between stock prices and real estate prices has been the subject of substantial debate in both the academic and practitioner literatures. Existing studies have focused on the time series of stock and real estate returns using data from a single country, such as the U.S. By necessity, these studies examine return and price changes over short intervals, creating a bias when property values are smoothed from year to year. Using data from 17 different countries over 14 years, this paper examines the relation between stock returns and changes in property values and rents. Consistent with other country-specific studies, we find that, with the exception of Japan, the contemporaneous relation between yearly real estate price changes and stock returns is not statistically significant. However, when the data are pooled across countries and when we look at longer measurement intervals, a significant relation between stock returns and both rents and value changes becomes apparent. Real estate prices are also found to be significantly influenced by GDP growth rates and provide a good long-term hedge against inflation but a poor year-to-year hedge. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 183-207

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:27:y:1999:i:2:p:183-207

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Cited by:
  1. E Philip Davis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  2. Chan, Kam Fong & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Brooks, Robert & Gray, Stephen, 2011. "Asset market linkages: Evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1415-1426, June.
  3. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Discussion Papers 00017, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  4. Lin, Tsoyu Calvin & Lin, Zong-Han, 2011. "Are stock and real estate markets integrated? An empirical study of six Asian economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 571-585, November.
  5. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2011. "REITs, interest rates and stock prices in Malaysia," Monash Economics Working Papers 01-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  6. Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough & Ha-Chin Yi, 2008. "On Demand: Cross-Country Evidence From Commercial Real Estate Asset Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-37.
  7. Su, Chi-Wei, 2011. "Non-linear causality between the stock and real estate markets of Western European countries: Evidence from rank tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 845-851, May.
  8. Tsangyao Chang & Xiao-lin Li & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Co-Movement and Causality between the U.S. Real Estate and Stock Markets in the Time and Frequency Domains," Working papers 2013-34, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  9. Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia V., 2011. "Investment horizon and portfolio choice of private investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 68-75, April.
  10. Simon Stevenson & James Young, . "Capital Market Expectations and the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2011-09, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  11. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2002. "Relationships between Australian Real Estate and Stock Market Prices--A Case of Market Inefficiency," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 181-92, April.
  12. I-Chun Tsai & Cheng-Feng Lee & Ming-Chu Chiang, 2012. "The Asymmetric Wealth Effect in the US Housing and Stock Markets: Evidence from the Threshold Cointegration Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1005-1020, November.
  13. Guo, Feng & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2011. "Markets contagion during financial crisis: A regime-switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-109, January.
  14. Barry, Christopher B. & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2004. "Risk and return characteristics of property indices in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-159, June.

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