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The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior

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Author Info
Allen N. Berger
Gregory F. Udell

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Abstract

Stylized facts suggest that bank lending behavior is highly procyclical. We offer a new hypothesis that may help explain why this occurs. The institutional memory hypothesis is driven by deterioration in the ability of loan officers over the bank's lending cycle that results in an easing of credit standards. This easing of standards may be compounded by simultaneous deterioration in the capacity of bank management to discipline its loan officers and reduction in the capacities of external stakeholders to discipline bank management. We test the empirical implications of this hypothesis using data from individual U.S. banks over the period 1980-2000. We employ over 200,000 observations on commercial loan growth measured at the bank level, over 2,000,000 observations on interest rate premiums on individual loans, and over 2,000 observations on credit standards and bank-level loan spreads from bank management survey responses. The empirical analysis provides support for the hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-02.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-02

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Related research
Keywords: Bank loans ; Business cycles;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A Theory of Systemic Risk and Design of Prudential Bank Regulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 2001. "An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 25-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1992. "Some Evidence on the Empirical Significance of Credit Rationing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1047-77, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Acharya, Viral V & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2003. "Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Berlin, Mitchell & Mester, Loretta J, 1999. "Deposits and Relationship Lending," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 579-607.
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  7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 1994. "Did risk-based capital allocate bank credit and cause a "credit crunch" in the United States?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 585-633.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlo Brambilla & Giandomenico Piluso, 2007. "Are Banks Procyclical? Evidence from the Italian Case (1890-1973)," Department of Economics University of Siena 523, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
  2. E Philip Davis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mario Quagliariello, . "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Das, Abhiman & Ghosh, Saibal, 2007. "Determinants of Credit Risk in Indian State-owned Banks: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 17301, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Herrala, Risto, 2009. "Credit crunch? An empirical test of cyclical credit policy," Research Discussion Papers 10/2009, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. de Haas, Ralph & van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "The crisis as a wake-up call. Do banks tighten screening and monitoring standards during a financial crisis?," MPRA Paper 14164, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks' procyclicality behavior : does provisioning matter ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115622_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2005. "Lending Booms and Lending Standards," CEPR Discussion Papers 5095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May. [Downloadable!]
  12. Acharya, Viral V & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2003. "Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2009. "The Role of Banks in the Subprime Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2009-02, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2005. "The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behaviour to macroeconomic uncertainty," Working Papers 2005_27, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Allen N. Berger & Christa H.S. Bouwman, 2005. "Bank liquidity creation and bank capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 223-228. [Downloadable!]
  16. Robert DeYoung & Anne Gron & Andrew Winton, 2005. "Risk overhang and loan portfolio decisions," Working Paper Series WP-05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation," Banco de España Working Papers 0531, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2009. "Rescuing Banks from the Effects of the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2009-04, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Annick Bruggeman & Marie Donnay, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 264, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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