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Bank Credit Cycles

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Author Info
Gary Gorton
Ping He

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Abstract

Private information about prospective borrowers produced by a bank can affect rival lenders due to a "winner%u2019s curse" effect. Strategic interaction between banks with respect to the intensity of costly information production results in endogenous credit cycles, periodic "credit crunches." Empirical tests are constructed based on parameterizing public information about relative bank performance that is at the root of banks%u2019 beliefs about rival banks%u2019 behavior. Consistent with the theory, we find that the relative performance of rival banks has predictive power for subsequent lending in the credit card market, where we can identify the main competitors. At the macroeconomic level, we show that the relative bank performance of commercial and industrial loans is an autonomous source of macroeconomic fluctuations. We also find that the relative bank performance is a priced risk factor for both banks and nonfinancial firms. The factor-coefficients for non-financial firms are decreasing with size.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11363.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11363

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E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L’évolution des crédits à l’habitat en France : une grille d’analyse en termes de cycles," Documents de Travail 172, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zhang, Zhipeng, 2009. "Who Pulls the Plug? Theory and Evidence on Corporate Bankruptcy Decisions," MPRA Paper 17676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ben Craig & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2006. "Gross loan flows," Working Paper 0604, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2009. "Credit Crises, Money and Contractions: an historical view," NBER Working Papers 15389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2009. "Credit crises, money, and contractions: A historical view," Working Paper 0908, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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