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Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk

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Author Info
Acharya, Viral V
Yorulmazer, Tanju

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Abstract

Two aspects of systemic risk, the risk that banks fail together, are modeled and their interaction examined. First, the ex-post aspect, in which the failure of a bank brings down a surviving bank as well, and second, the ex-ante aspect, in which banks endogenously hold correlated portfolios increasing the likelihood of joint failure. When bank loan returns have a systematic factor, the failure of one bank conveys adverse information about this systematic factor and increases the cost of borrowing for the surviving banks. Such information contagion is thus costly to bank owners. Given their limited liability, banks herd ex-ante and undertake correlated investments to increase the likelihood of joint survival. If the depositors of a failed bank can migrate to the surviving bank, then herding incentives are partially mitigated and this gives rise to a pro-cyclical pattern in the correlation of bank loan returns. The direction of information contagion, the localized nature of contagion and herding, and the welfare properties, are also characterized.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3743.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3743

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Related research
Keywords: contagion; herding; information spillover; interbank correlation; procyclicality; systemic risk;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Moheeput, Ashwin, 2008. "Financial Fragility, Systemic Risks and Informational Spillovers : Modelling Banking Contagion as State-Contingent Change in Cross-Bank Correlation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 853, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A. E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2006. "Banks, Relative Performance, and Sequential Contagion," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe10, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Caspar G. de Vries, 2004. "Fundamentals and joint currency crises," Working Paper Series 324, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2003. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Moheeput, Ashwin, 2008. "Financial Systems, Micro-Systemic Risks and Central Bank Policy : An Analytical Taxonomy of the Literature," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 856, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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