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Financial Fragility, Liquidity and Asset Prices

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Author Info
Franklin Allen
Douglas Gale

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Abstract

A financial system is fragile if a small shock has a large effect. Sunspot equilibria, where the endogenous variables depend on extrinsic uncertainty, provide an extreme illustration. However, fundamental equilibria, where outcomes depend only on intrinsic uncertainty, can also be fragile. We study the relationship between sunspot equilibria and fundamental equilibria in a model of financial crises. The amount of liquidity is endogenously chosen and determines asset prices. The model has multiple equilibria, but only some of these are the limit of fundamental equilibria when the fundamental uncertainty becomes vanishingly small. We show that under certain conditions the only robust equilibria are those in which extrinsic uncertainty gives rise to asset price volatility and Þnancial crises.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 01-37.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:01-37

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Bruce Champ & Bruce D. Smith & Stephen D. Williamson, 1996. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: Theory and Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 828-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Gottardi, Piero & Kajii, Atsushi, 1999. "The Structure of Sunspot Equilibria: The Role of Multiplicity," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(3), pages 713-32, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  6. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  8. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2000. "Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression," NBER Working Papers 7919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean Tirole, 1996. "Interbank lending and systemic risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 733-765.
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  11. Geanakoplos, John, 1990. "An introduction to general equilibrium with incomplete asset markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alonso, Irasema, 1996. "On avoiding bank runs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 73-87, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Postlewaite, Andrew & Vives, Xavier, 1987. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 485-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1976. "Optimal Financial Crises," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  16. V.V. Chari & Ravi Jagannathan, 1984. "Banking Panics," Discussion Papers 618, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Optimal Currency Crises," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Karl Shell & Aditya Goenka, 1996. "When sunspots don't matter (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 169-178.
  22. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Neil Wallace, 1990. "A banking model in which partial suspension is best," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 11-23. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  27. James Peck & Karl Shell, 2003. "Equilibrium Bank Runs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 103-123, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles W. Calomiris, 2007. "Bank Failures in Theory and History: The Great Depression and Other "Contagious" Events," NBER Working Papers 13597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. George J.Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson, 2003. "Sunk Investments Lead to Unpredictable Prices (Second Version)," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 30 Jan 2004. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2004. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector," MPRA Paper 651, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Filippo Taddei, 2007. "Liquidity and the Allocation of Credit: Business Cycle, Government Debt and Financial Arrangements," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 65, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  5. Shirley HO, 2004. "Evolutionary Forces in a Banking System with Speculation and System Risk," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 692, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christina E. Bannier & Falko Fecht & Marcel Tyrell, 2008. "Open-End Real Estate Funds in Germany - Genesis and Crisis," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 165, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dairo Estrada & Daniel Osorio, . "A Market Risk Approach to Liquidity Risk and Financial Contagion," Borradores de Economia 384, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  9. George Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson, 2003. "Sunk Investments Lead to Unpredictable Prices," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000019, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. repec:att:wimass:1920311 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Dairo Estrada & Daniel Osorio, 2006. "A Market Risk Approach To Liquidity Risk And Financial Contagion," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001921, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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