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Financial Fragility, Liquidity and Asset Prices

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  • Franklin Allen
  • Douglas Gale

Abstract

A financial system is fragile if a small shock has a large effect. Sunspot equilibria, where the endogenous variables depend on extrinsic uncertainty, provide an extreme illustration. However, fundamental equilibria, where outcomes depend only on intrinsic uncertainty, can also be fragile. We study the relationship between sunspot equilibria and fundamental equilibria in a model of financial crises. The amount of liquidity is endogenously chosen and determines asset prices. The model has multiple equilibria, but only some of these are the limit of fundamental equilibria when the fundamental uncertainty becomes vanishingly small. We show that under certain conditions the only robust equilibria are those in which extrinsic uncertainty gives rise to asset price volatility and Þnancial crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 01-37.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:01-37

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References

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  1. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2000. "Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression," NBER Working Papers 7919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Filippo Taddei, 2007. "Liquidity and the Allocation of Credit: Business Cycle, Government Debt and Financial Arrangements," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 65, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  2. George J.Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson, 2003. "Sunk Investments Lead to Unpredictable Prices (Second Version)," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 30 Jan 2004.
  3. George Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson, 2003. "Sunk Investments Lead to Unpredictable Prices," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000019, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Dairo Estrada & Daniel Osorio, . "A Market Risk Approach to Liquidity Risk and Financial Contagion," Borradores de Economia 384, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," MPRA Paper 806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Shirley HO, 2004. "Evolutionary Forces in a Banking System with Speculation and System Risk," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 692, Econometric Society.
  7. Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2004. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector," MPRA Paper 651, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2005.
  8. Dairo Estrada & Daniel Osorio, 2006. "A Market Risk Approach To Liquidity Risk And Financial Contagion," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001921, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Charles W. Calomiris, 2007. "Bank Failures in Theory and History: The Great Depression and Other "Contagious" Events," NBER Working Papers 13597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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