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Evolution, Coordination, and Banking Panics

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  • Ted Temzelides

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Abstract

I study equilibrium selection by an evolutionary process in an environment with multiple equilibria, one of which involves a banking panic. The analysis is built on a repeated version of the Diamod-Dybvig (1983) model. The optimal (run free) equilibrium is uniquely selected if it is also "risk dominant." Furthermore, the probability of observing a panic increases as the size of the banks decreases. I discuss local interaction and contagion effects that allow for a bankrun to spread first among banks in the same geographic location and then throughout the entire population.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9511002.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 22 Nov 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9511002

Note: 26 pages, TEX(SWP) file
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References

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  1. Edward J. Green, 1995. "Implementing Efficient Allocations in a Model of Financial Intermediation," Meeting papers 9506001, EconWPA.
  2. Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, 1991. "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 109-174 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Glen Ellison, 2010. "Learning, Local Interaction, and Coordination," Levine's Working Paper Archive 391, David K. Levine.
  4. Kandori Michihiro & Rob Rafael, 1995. "Evolution of Equilibria in the Long Run: A General Theory and Applications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 383-414, April.
  5. M. Kandori & G. Mailath & R. Rob, 1999. "Learning, Mutation and Long Run Equilibria in Games," Levine's Working Paper Archive 500, David K. Levine.
  6. Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January.
  7. Binmore Kenneth G. & Samuelson Larry & Vaughan Richard, 1995. "Musical Chairs: Modeling Noisy Evolution," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-35, October.
  8. V.V. Chari, 1989. "Banking without deposit insurance or bank panics: lessons from a model of the U.S. national banking system," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 3-19.
  9. Villamil, A P, 1991. "Demand Deposit Contracts, Suspension of Convertibility, and Optimal Financial Intermediation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 277-88, July.
  10. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  11. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384, December.
  12. Lagunoff, Roger D & Matsui, Akihiko, 1995. "Evolution in Mechanisms for Public Projects," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 195-223, July.
  13. Bryant, John, 1980. "A model of reserves, bank runs, and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-344, December.
  14. Bergin, James & Lipman, Barton L, 1996. "Evolution with State-Dependent Mutations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 943-56, July.
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  16. Champ, B. & Smith, B.D., 1991. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: theory and Evidence," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9109, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
  17. Rustichini, Aldo & Villamil, Anne P, 1996. "Intertemporal Pricing in Markets with Differential Information," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 211-27, August.
  18. McAndrews James J. & Roberds William, 1995. "Banks, Payments, and Coordination," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 305-327, October.
  19. Postlewaite, Andrew & Vives, Xavier, 1987. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 485-91, June.
  20. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-92, June.
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  26. repec:att:wimass:9324 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Arifovic, Jasmina & Hua Jiang, Janet & Xu, Yiping, 2013. "Experimental evidence of bank runs as pure coordination failures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2446-2465.
  2. Jasmina Arifovic & Janet Hua Jiang, 2014. "Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs," Working Papers 14-12, Bank of Canada.
  3. Sébastien Vivier-Lirimont, 2004. "Interbanking networks : towards a small financial world ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04046, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  4. Alexandra Lai, 2002. "Modelling Financial Instability: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 02-12, Bank of Canada.
  5. Huberto M. Ennis, 2003. "Economic fundamentals and bank runs," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 55-71.
  6. Raphael H. Solomon, 2003. "Anatomy of a Twin Crisis," Working Papers 03-41, Bank of Canada.
  7. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
  8. Niinimaki, Juha-Pekka, 2002. "Do time deposits prevent bank runs?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 19-31, February.
  9. Chongmin Kim & Kam-Chau Wong, 2011. "Evolution of Walrasian equilibrium in an exchange economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 619-647, October.
  10. Andrey Zubarev, 2013. "Russian Banking System: Stability Factors In the Wake of 2008-2009 Crisis," Working Papers 0049, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
  11. Philippe Madiès, 2001. "Coassurance des dépôts et panique bancaire : une étude expérimentale," Post-Print halshs-00151511, HAL.
  12. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2010. "Banking panics and policy responses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 404-419, May.
  13. Hoag, Christopher, 2005. "Deposit drains on "interest-paying" banks before financial crises," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 567-585, October.
  14. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
  15. Bougheas, Spiros, 1999. "Contagious bank runs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 131-146, June.
  16. Luo, Xueming, 2003. "Evaluating the profitability and marketability efficiency of large banks: An application of data envelopment analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 627-635, August.

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