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Evolution, Coordination, and Banking Panics

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  • Ted Temzelides

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Abstract

I study equilibrium selection by an evolutionary process in an environment with multiple equilibria, one of which involves a banking panic. The analysis is built on a repeated version of the Diamod-Dybvig (1983) model. The optimal (run free) equilibrium is uniquely selected if it is also "risk dominant." Furthermore, the probability of observing a panic increases as the size of the banks decreases. I discuss local interaction and contagion effects that allow for a bankrun to spread first among banks in the same geographic location and then throughout the entire population.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9511002.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 22 Nov 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9511002

Note: 26 pages, TEX(SWP) file
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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References

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  1. BERGIN, James & LIPMAN, Bart, 1994. "Evolution with State-Dependent Mutations," CORE Discussion Papers 1994055, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Kandori Michihiro & Rob Rafael, 1995. "Evolution of Equilibria in the Long Run: A General Theory and Applications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 383-414, April.
  3. V.V. Chari, 1989. "Banking without deposit insurance or bank panics: lessons from a model of the U.S. national banking system," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 3-19.
  4. M. Kandori & G. Mailath & R. Rob, 1999. "Learning, Mutation and Long Run Equilibria in Games," Levine's Working Paper Archive 500, David K. Levine.
  5. Neil Wallace, 1988. "Another attempt to explain an illiquid banking system: the Diamond and Dybvig model with sequential service taken seriously," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-16.
  6. repec:att:wimass:9324 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Ellison, Glenn, 1993. "Learning, Local Interaction, and Coordination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1047-71, September.
  8. Villamil, A P, 1991. "Demand Deposit Contracts, Suspension of Convertibility, and Optimal Financial Intermediation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 277-88, July.
  9. James McAndrews & William Roberds, 1994. "Banks, payments, and coordination," Working Paper 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Aldo Rustichini & Anne P. Villamil, 1996. "Intertemporal pricing in markets with differential information," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 211-227.
  11. Champ, B. & Snith, B.D. & Williamson, D.S., 1991. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: Theory and Evidence," RCER Working Papers 292, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  12. P. Young, 1999. "The Evolution of Conventions," Levine's Working Paper Archive 485, David K. Levine.
  13. Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, . "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  14. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-92, June.
  15. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  16. Green, Edward J. & Lin, Ping, 2003. "Implementing efficient allocations in a model of financial intermediation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 1-23, March.
  17. Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January.
  18. Chari, V V & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1988. " Banking Panics, Information, and Rational Expectations Equilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 749-61, July.
  19. Lagunoff, Roger D & Matsui, Akihiko, 1995. "Evolution in Mechanisms for Public Projects," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 195-223, July.
  20. D. Foster & P. Young, 2010. "Stochastic Evolutionary Game Dynamics," Levine's Working Paper Archive 493, David K. Levine.
  21. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384, December.
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  24. Postlewaite, Andrew & Vives, Xavier, 1987. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 485-91, June.
  25. Bryant, John, 1980. "A model of reserves, bank runs, and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-344, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Huberto M. Ennis, 2003. "Economic fundamentals and bank runs," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 55-71.
  2. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
  3. Philippe Madiès, 2001. "Coassurance des dépôts et panique bancaire : une étude expérimentale," Post-Print halshs-00151511, HAL.
  4. Sébastien Vivier-Lirimont, 2004. "Interbanking networks : towards a small financial world ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04046, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  5. Hoag, Christopher, 2005. "Deposit drains on "interest-paying" banks before financial crises," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 567-585, October.
  6. Andrey Zubarev, 2013. "Russian Banking System: Stability Factors In the Wake of 2008-2009 Crisis," Working Papers 0049, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
  7. Chongmin Kim & Kam-Chau Wong, 2011. "Evolution of Walrasian equilibrium in an exchange economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 619-647, October.
  8. Jasmina Arifovic & Janet Hua Jiang, 2014. "Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs," Working Papers 14-12, Bank of Canada.
  9. Arifovic, Jasmina & Hua Jiang, Janet & Xu, Yiping, 2013. "Experimental evidence of bank runs as pure coordination failures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2446-2465.
  10. Luo, Xueming, 2003. "Evaluating the profitability and marketability efficiency of large banks: An application of data envelopment analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 627-635, August.
  11. Raphael H. Solomon, 2003. "Anatomy of a Twin Crisis," Working Papers 03-41, Bank of Canada.
  12. Alexandra Lai, 2002. "Modelling Financial Instability: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 02-12, Bank of Canada.
  13. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2010. "Banking panics and policy responses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 404-419, May.
  14. Bougheas, Spiros, 1999. "Contagious bank runs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 131-146, June.
  15. Niinimaki, Juha-Pekka, 2002. "Do time deposits prevent bank runs?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 19-31, February.
  16. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.

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